PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Stade Océane

Le Havre 0–1 Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 1

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Olympique de Marseille won 0–1.

Shots
108
Shots on target
23
Expected goals
1.141.21
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Marseille beat Le Havre 1–0. Recorded in this match (Le Havre – Marseille): shots 10–8, shots on target 2–3, expected goals 1.14–1.21, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Le Havre's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Le Havre's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.91 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match0.91 goals/match1.44 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Marseille show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Marseille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.1 shots/match ▲ShotsLe Havre · Marseille14.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLe HavreMarseilleBaseline
Shots11.1 shots/match14.7 shots/match11.4 shots/match
Shots against13 shots/match10.1 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Marseille have recorded the higher season possession share.

47%PossessionLe Havre · Marseille● 57.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLe HavreMarseilleBaseline
Possession47%57.3%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots8 shotsLe Havre 10 shots, Olympique de Marseille 8 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots3 shotsLe Havre 2 shots, Olympique de Marseille 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.14 xG1.21 xGLe Havre 1.14 xG, Olympique de Marseille 1.21 xG
  • Possession50%50%Le Havre 50%, Olympique de Marseille 50%
  • Corners3 corners0 cornersLe Havre 3 corners, Olympique de Marseille 0 corners
  • Fouls20 fouls22 foulsLe Havre 20 fouls, Olympique de Marseille 22 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards2 cardsLe Havre 4 cards, Olympique de Marseille 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Rassoul Ndiaye · Le Havre · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlly Samatta · Le Havre · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLucas Gourna-Douath · Le Havre · 46′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlly Samatta · Le Havre · 7′ · 0.04 xG · on targetSofiane Boufal · Le Havre · 8′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 31′ · 0.04 xG · on targetIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 71′ · 0.04 xG · on targetEmerson Palmieri · Marseille · 84′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSimon Ebonog · Le Havre · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTochukwu Nnadi · Marseille · 31′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAlly Samatta · Le Havre · 66′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedFodé Doucouré · Le Havre · 71′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAmine Gouiri · Marseille · 13′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 55′ · 0.82 xG · goalSofiane Boufal · Le Havre · 71′ · 0.82 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Le Havre: 10 shots, 2 on target, 1.24 xG. Marseille: 7 shots, 3 on target, 1.16 xG. · 1 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Mason Greenwood · Marseille · 55′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Le Havre 1.24 xG · Marseille 1.16 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Le Havre
0Draws
5Olympique de Marseille
Olympique de Marseille — Le Havre · Ligue 16–2
Le Havre — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 11–3
Olympique de Marseille — Le Havre · Ligue 15–1
Le Havre — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 11–2
Olympique de Marseille — Le Havre · Ligue 13–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Le Havre favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Olympique de Marseille in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Le Havre33 matchesOlympique de Marseille33 matches
0.91 goals/matchGoals scored33/33▲ 1.82 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed33/331.33 goals/match
1.12 xG/matchExpected goals33/33▲ 1.76 xG/match
11.1 shots/matchShots33/33▲ 14.7 shots/match
3.64 shots/matchShots on target33/33▲ 5.58 shots/match
47%Possession33/33● 57.3%
4.36 corners/matchCorners33/33● 5.21 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards28/252.44 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls33/3312.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples33 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 May 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLe HavreOlympique de Marseille
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2025/26
Head-to-headLe Havre — Olympique de Marseille
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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