PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 17 May 2026, 19:00 UTCFull time

Marseille

3–1Full-time recap

Rennes

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Marseille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Marseille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Marseille's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Marseille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.85 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Marseille show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Marseille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots15 shots/match14.2 shots/match11.5 shots/match
Shots against10.6 shots/match13.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Corners5.18 corners/match6 corners/match4.59 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Marseille91.7
Rennes63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Marseille88
Rennes78.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Marseille72.2
Rennes38.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Marseille75
Rennes80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Marseille66.7
Rennes36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 87%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Marseille69.4
Rennes86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Marseille75
Rennes73.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricMarseilleRennes
Goals scored1 goals/match5 obs.2 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed1.4 goals/match5 obs.1.8 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.92 xG/match5 obs.2.01 xG/match5 obs.
Shots18 shots/match5 obs.17.8 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target6 shots/match5 obs.6 shots/match5 obs.
Possession55.8%5 obs.53%5 obs.
Corners5.2 corners/match5 obs.7.8 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—0 obs.—0 obs.
Fouls13.6 fouls/match5 obs.12.8 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricMarseilleRennes
Goals scored1.2 goals/match10 obs.2.1 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1.2 goals/match10 obs.1.5 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1.84 xG/match9 obs.1.84 xG/match9 obs.
Shots16.6 shots/match10 obs.16.8 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target5.7 shots/match10 obs.6.2 shots/match10 obs.
Possession54.9%10 obs.57.2%10 obs.
Corners5.8 corners/match10 obs.7.1 corners/match10 obs.
Cards—1 obs.—1 obs.
Fouls12.2 fouls/match10 obs.12.1 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

34 / 34 matches
MetricMarseilleRennes
Goals scored1.85 goals/match34 obs.1.74 goals/match34 obs.
Goals allowed1.32 goals/match34 obs.1.47 goals/match34 obs.
Expected goals1.84 xG/match9 obs.1.84 xG/match9 obs.
Shots15 shots/match34 obs.14.2 shots/match34 obs.
Shots on target5.71 shots/match34 obs.4.97 shots/match34 obs.
Possession57%34 obs.53.5%34 obs.
Corners5.18 corners/match34 obs.6 corners/match34 obs.
Cards2.44 cards/match25 obs.1.92 cards/match25 obs.
Fouls12.7 fouls/match34 obs.12.4 fouls/match34 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 17 matches
MetricMarseilleRennes
Goals scored2.41 goals/match17 obs.1.71 goals/match17 obs.
Goals allowed1.18 goals/match17 obs.1.94 goals/match17 obs.
Expected goals1.98 xG/match5 obs.2.43 xG/match4 obs.
Shots15.8 shots/match17 obs.12.5 shots/match17 obs.
Shots on target6.29 shots/match17 obs.4.47 shots/match17 obs.
Possession57.9%17 obs.52.5%17 obs.
Corners5.59 corners/match17 obs.5.53 corners/match17 obs.
Cards2.17 cards/match12 obs.2.08 cards/match13 obs.
Fouls12.9 fouls/match17 obs.11.8 fouls/match17 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.85 goals/match86th1.74 goals/match75th1.42 goals/match34 / 34
Goals allowedseason1.32 goals/match36th1.47 goals/match61th1.4 goals/match34 / 34
Expected goalsseason1.84 xG/match81th1.84 xG/match86th1.47 xG/match9 / 9
Expected goals allowedseason1.35 xG/match25th1.61 xG/match81th1.45 xG/match9 / 9
Shotsseason15 shots/match86th14.2 shots/match81th11.5 shots/match34 / 34
Shots allowedseason10.6 shots/match14th13.5 shots/match69th12.5 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on targetseason5.71 shots/match92th4.97 shots/match81th4.14 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on target allowedseason3.97 shots/match33th4.29 shots/match53th4.24 shots/match34 / 34
Possessionseason57%92th53.5%64th49.7%34 / 34
Cornersseason5.18 corners/match69th6 corners/match86th4.59 corners/match34 / 34
Corners allowedseason3.62 corners/match8th4.59 corners/match31th4.87 corners/match34 / 34
Cardsseason2.44 cards/match81th1.92 cards/match25th2.15 cards/match25 / 25
Foulsseason12.7 fouls/match53th12.4 fouls/match47th12.5 fouls/match34 / 34
Clean-sheet frequencyseason26%50th29%72th26%34 / 34
Scoring frequencyseason76%64th82%83th71%34 / 34

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures7 days—7 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures1 matches—1 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsMarseilleRennes
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 May 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v3