PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 17 May 2026, 19:00 UTCFull time

Stade Brestois 29

1–1Full-time recap

Angers

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Stade Brestois 29's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Stade Brestois 29's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Stade Brestois 29 have a visible home split

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match11.1 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Stade Brestois 29's recent record differs from the season

weak

Stade Brestois 29's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.26 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Stade Brestois 2919.4
Angers2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Stade Brestois 2927.8
Angers4.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Stade Brestois 2920.4
Angers23.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Stade Brestois 2963.9
Angers13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2951.4
Angers16.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 90%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2919.4
Angers8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Stade Brestois 2934
Angers11.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricStade Brestois 29Angers
Goals scored1 goals/match5 obs.0.8 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed2.2 goals/match5 obs.1.8 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.08 xG/match5 obs.0.96 xG/match5 obs.
Shots11.6 shots/match5 obs.8.8 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target3.2 shots/match5 obs.3 shots/match5 obs.
Possession44.8%5 obs.38%5 obs.
Corners3.2 corners/match5 obs.3.6 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—0 obs.2 cards/match3 obs.
Fouls9.2 fouls/match5 obs.10 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricStade Brestois 29Angers
Goals scored1.1 goals/match10 obs.0.7 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed2.1 goals/match10 obs.1.8 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1.03 xG/match9 obs.0.97 xG/match9 obs.
Shots10 shots/match10 obs.9.3 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target2.7 shots/match10 obs.2.9 shots/match10 obs.
Possession46.2%10 obs.40.4%10 obs.
Corners3.1 corners/match10 obs.3.8 corners/match10 obs.
Cards3 cards/match3 obs.1.75 cards/match4 obs.
Fouls11.3 fouls/match10 obs.11.3 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

34 / 34 matches
MetricStade Brestois 29Angers
Goals scored1.26 goals/match34 obs.0.85 goals/match34 obs.
Goals allowed1.62 goals/match34 obs.1.41 goals/match34 obs.
Expected goals1.03 xG/match9 obs.0.97 xG/match9 obs.
Shots11.1 shots/match34 obs.9.24 shots/match34 obs.
Shots on target3.5 shots/match34 obs.3.26 shots/match34 obs.
Possession43.4%34 obs.41.8%34 obs.
Corners3.85 corners/match34 obs.3.56 corners/match34 obs.
Cards2 cards/match27 obs.1.57 cards/match28 obs.
Fouls12.7 fouls/match34 obs.11.1 fouls/match34 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 17 matches
MetricStade Brestois 29Angers
Goals scored1.65 goals/match17 obs.0.65 goals/match17 obs.
Goals allowed1.35 goals/match17 obs.1.65 goals/match17 obs.
Expected goals1.42 xG/match4 obs.1.42 xG/match4 obs.
Shots13.8 shots/match17 obs.8.35 shots/match17 obs.
Shots on target4.47 shots/match17 obs.2.76 shots/match17 obs.
Possession44.4%17 obs.40.5%17 obs.
Corners4.65 corners/match17 obs.3 corners/match17 obs.
Cards1.77 cards/match13 obs.1.5 cards/match14 obs.
Fouls12.6 fouls/match17 obs.9.41 fouls/match17 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.26 goals/match36th0.85 goals/match3th1.42 goals/match34 / 34
Goals allowedseason1.62 goals/match86th1.41 goals/match53th1.4 goals/match34 / 34
Expected goalsseason1.03 xG/match25th0.97 xG/match8th1.47 xG/match9 / 9
Expected goals allowedseason1.7 xG/match92th1.73 xG/match97th1.45 xG/match9 / 9
Shotsseason11.1 shots/match25th9.24 shots/match3th11.5 shots/match34 / 34
Shots allowedseason13.9 shots/match81th14.3 shots/match86th12.5 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on targetseason3.5 shots/match22th3.26 shots/match8th4.14 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on target allowedseason4.65 shots/match72th5.38 shots/match92th4.24 shots/match34 / 34
Possessionseason43.4%19th41.8%3th49.7%34 / 34
Cornersseason3.85 corners/match19th3.56 corners/match8th4.59 corners/match34 / 34
Corners allowedseason5.82 corners/match97th5.21 corners/match64th4.87 corners/match34 / 34
Cardsseason2 cards/match33th1.57 cards/match8th2.15 cards/match27 / 28
Foulsseason12.7 fouls/match69th11.1 fouls/match25th12.5 fouls/match34 / 34
Clean-sheet frequencyseason26%50th29%72th26%34 / 34
Scoring frequencyseason68%33th65%25th71%34 / 34

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures4.08 days—7 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures2 matches—1 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsStade Brestois 29Angers
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 May 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v3