Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 10 May 2026, 19:00 UTCFull timeStade Saint-SymphorienFull-time recap

Metz

DLLDL

0–4Full-time recap

Lorient

DLWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Metz	Lorient
Shots	8 shots/match	14 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.45 xG/match	2.34 xG/match▲
Possession	54%	46%
Corners	7 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	8 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Metz: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.46 xG. Lorient: 14 shots, 7 on target, 2.35 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Metz 0.46 xG · Lorient 2.35 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Metz's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Metz's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Metz's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Metz's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.97 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	0.97 goals/match	1.44 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metz have a visible home split

moderate

Metz's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

11.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season9.88 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	11.8 shots/match	9.88 shots/match	11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Metz

1Draws

0Lorient

4 Jan 2026Lorient — Metz · Ligue 11–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Metz favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Lorient in 10 · 3 too close

0.97 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 33/33▲1.45 goals/match

2.3 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 33/33▲1.48 goals/match

1.11 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 8/8▲1.42 xG/match

1.72 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.28 xG/match

9.88 shots/matchShotsseason · 33/33▲11.3 shots/match

15.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 33/33▲11.2 shots/match

3.15 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 33/33▲4 shots/match

5.79 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 33/33▲3.94 shots/match

48.9%Possessionseason · 33/3344.9%

4.24 corners/matchCornersseason · 33/333.45 corners/match

5.09 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 33/335.48 corners/match

1.85 cards/matchCardsseason · 26/251.76 cards/match

11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 33/339.52 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 33/33▲21%

58%Scoring frequencyseason · 33/33▲73%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Metz47.2

Lorient30.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Metz11.1

Lorient46.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Metz2.8

Lorient58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Metz2.8

Lorient63.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Metz25

Lorient11.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 88%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Metz30.6

Lorient2.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Metz18.1

Lorient24.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match

3.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match

0.91 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.66 xG/match

10.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.2 shots/match

3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.2 shots/match

47.8%Possession5/541.4%

5.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.4 fouls/matchFouls5/58.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.6 goals/match

2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match

1.11 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲1.42 xG/match

12.4 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.3 shots/match

3.7 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.4 shots/match

50.1%Possession10/1044.1%

5.4 corners/matchCorners10/103.6 corners/match

2.33 cards/matchCards3/2—

11.5 fouls/matchFouls10/109.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

33 / 33 matches

0.97 goals/matchGoals scored33/33▲1.45 goals/match

2.3 goals/matchGoals allowed33/33▲1.48 goals/match

1.11 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲1.42 xG/match

9.88 shots/matchShots33/33▲11.3 shots/match

3.15 shots/matchShots on target33/33▲4 shots/match

48.9%Possession33/3344.9%

4.24 corners/matchCorners33/333.45 corners/match

1.85 cards/matchCards26/251.76 cards/match

11.3 fouls/matchFouls33/339.52 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 17 matches

0.88 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲1 goals/match

1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲1.53 goals/match

1.3 xG/matchExpected goals5/41.37 xG/match

11.8 shots/match▲Shots17/1710.7 shots/match

3.82 shots/match▲Shots on target17/173.47 shots/match

50.1%Possession17/1744.9%

4.94 corners/matchCorners17/173.76 corners/match

1.54 cards/matchCards13/131.62 cards/match

11.5 fouls/matchFouls17/179.47 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.08 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples33 / 33home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 May 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Metz's recent record differs from the season

Metz have a visible home split

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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