PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 17 May 2026, 19:00 UTCFull time

Nice

0–0Full-time recap

Metz

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nice's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Metz's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Nice's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nice's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.09 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metz have a visible away split

moderate

Metz's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots8.35 shots/match10.1 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nice36.1
Metz47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nice32.4
Metz9.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nice10.2
Metz2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nice41.7
Metz2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nice54.2
Metz27.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 88%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nice63.9
Metz33.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nice43.1
Metz20.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricNiceMetz
Goals scored0.6 goals/match5 obs.1.2 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed0.8 goals/match5 obs.2.6 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.03 xG/match5 obs.0.96 xG/match5 obs.
Shots10.2 shots/match5 obs.12.4 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target3 shots/match5 obs.3.6 shots/match5 obs.
Possession42.4%5 obs.48.8%5 obs.
Corners4.4 corners/match5 obs.5.2 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—1 obs.—0 obs.
Fouls9.6 fouls/match5 obs.10.8 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricNiceMetz
Goals scored0.7 goals/match10 obs.1 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1.6 goals/match10 obs.2.3 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1 xG/match9 obs.1.06 xG/match9 obs.
Shots10.3 shots/match10 obs.11.6 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target3.2 shots/match10 obs.3.5 shots/match10 obs.
Possession41.9%10 obs.48.6%10 obs.
Corners5.2 corners/match10 obs.4.6 corners/match10 obs.
Cards1.67 cards/match3 obs.—2 obs.
Fouls11.6 fouls/match10 obs.11.6 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

34 / 34 matches
MetricNiceMetz
Goals scored1.09 goals/match34 obs.0.94 goals/match34 obs.
Goals allowed1.76 goals/match34 obs.2.24 goals/match34 obs.
Expected goals1 xG/match9 obs.1.06 xG/match9 obs.
Shots11.1 shots/match34 obs.10.1 shots/match34 obs.
Shots on target3.85 shots/match34 obs.3.18 shots/match34 obs.
Possession46.3%34 obs.48.9%34 obs.
Corners5.09 corners/match34 obs.4.24 corners/match34 obs.
Cards2.26 cards/match27 obs.1.85 cards/match26 obs.
Fouls12.3 fouls/match34 obs.11.4 fouls/match34 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

17 / 17 matches
MetricNiceMetz
Goals scored1.12 goals/match17 obs.1 goals/match17 obs.
Goals allowed1.59 goals/match17 obs.2.59 goals/match17 obs.
Expected goals1.14 xG/match4 obs.0.76 xG/match4 obs.
Shots12.9 shots/match17 obs.8.35 shots/match17 obs.
Shots on target4.29 shots/match17 obs.2.53 shots/match17 obs.
Possession45.6%17 obs.47.8%17 obs.
Corners5.53 corners/match17 obs.3.53 corners/match17 obs.
Cards2 cards/match15 obs.2.15 cards/match13 obs.
Fouls12.2 fouls/match17 obs.11.2 fouls/match17 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.09 goals/match31th0.94 goals/match17th1.42 goals/match34 / 34
Goals allowedseason1.76 goals/match92th2.24 goals/match97th1.4 goals/match34 / 34
Expected goalsseason1 xG/match14th1.06 xG/match31th1.47 xG/match9 / 9
Expected goals allowedseason1.53 xG/match64th1.7 xG/match86th1.45 xG/match9 / 9
Shotsseason11.1 shots/match31th10.1 shots/match8th11.5 shots/match34 / 34
Shots allowedseason14.9 shots/match92th15.3 shots/match97th12.5 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on targetseason3.85 shots/match36th3.18 shots/match3th4.14 shots/match34 / 34
Shots on target allowedseason5.15 shots/match86th5.74 shots/match97th4.24 shots/match34 / 34
Possessionseason46.3%36th48.9%47th49.7%34 / 34
Cornersseason5.09 corners/match64th4.24 corners/match33th4.59 corners/match34 / 34
Corners allowedseason5.71 corners/match92th5.24 corners/match69th4.87 corners/match34 / 34
Cardsseason2.26 cards/match67th1.85 cards/match19th2.15 cards/match27 / 26
Foulsseason12.3 fouls/match42th11.4 fouls/match36th12.5 fouls/match34 / 34
Clean-sheet frequencyseason18%3th21%14th26%34 / 34
Scoring frequencyseason68%33th56%8th71%34 / 34

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures7 days—7 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures1 matches—1 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsNiceMetz
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 May 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v3