Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 2 May 2026, 19:05 UTCFull timeAllianz RivieraFull-time recap

Nice

LLDDD

1–1Full-time recap

Lens

LWLWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nice	Lens
Shots	9 shots/match	16 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	4 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.79 xG/match	1.09 xG/match▲
Possession	46%	54%
Corners	7 corners/match	8 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	10 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match▲	3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Nice: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.78 xG. Lens: 16 shots, 4 on target, 1.11 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nice 0.78 xG · Lens 1.11 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lens's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Lens's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Lens's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lens's last-five shots average is above their season average.

22.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season16.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	22.8 shots/match	16.4 shots/match	11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lens show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Lens's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.8 shots/match▲ShotsNice · Lens16.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Nice	Lens	Baseline
Shots	10.8 shots/match	16.4 shots/match	11.3 shots/match
Shots against	14.9 shots/match	10.9 shots/match	12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.06 corners/match▲CornersNice · Lens6.06 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Nice	Lens	Baseline
Corners	5.06 corners/match	6.06 corners/match	4.55 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Nice

0Draws

1Lens

14 Dec 2025Lens — Nice · Ligue 12–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nice favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Lens in 11 · 3 too close

1.13 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 32/31▲1.97 goals/match

1.81 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 32/31▲1.06 goals/match

0.89 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 7/6▲2.11 xG/match

1.76 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 7/6▲1.33 xG/match

10.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 32/31▲16.4 shots/match

14.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 32/31▲10.9 shots/match

3.78 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 32/31▲5.48 shots/match

5.22 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 32/31▲3.48 shots/match

46.2%Possessionseason · 32/3151.3%

5.06 corners/matchCornersseason · 32/316.06 corners/match

5.63 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 32/31▲3.71 corners/match

2.26 cards/matchCardsseason · 27/272.15 cards/match

12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/3112.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

16%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/31▲32%

69%Scoring frequencyseason · 32/31▲84%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nice36.1

Lens58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nice32.4

Lens89.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nice10.2

Lens84.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nice36.1

Lens97.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nice59.8

Lens55.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 92%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nice63.9

Lens91.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nice45.9

Lens83.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.4 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match

0.96 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲2.26 xG/match

8.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲22.8 shots/match

2.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.8 shots/match

40.4%Possession5/559.4%

5.2 corners/matchCorners5/57.6 corners/match

—Cards1/2—

12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.4 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.6 goals/match

0.89 xG/matchExpected goals7/6▲2.11 xG/match

9 shots/matchShots10/10▲21.8 shots/match

2.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.5 shots/match

42.1%Possession10/1055.4%

5 corners/matchCorners10/107.3 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards5/61.67 cards/match

11.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

32 / 31 matches

1.13 goals/matchGoals scored32/31▲1.97 goals/match

1.81 goals/matchGoals allowed32/31▲1.06 goals/match

0.89 xG/matchExpected goals7/6▲2.11 xG/match

10.8 shots/matchShots32/31▲16.4 shots/match

3.78 shots/matchShots on target32/31▲5.48 shots/match

46.2%Possession32/3151.3%

5.06 corners/matchCorners32/316.06 corners/match

2.26 cards/matchCards27/272.15 cards/match

12.5 fouls/matchFouls32/3112.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 16 matches

1.19 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.69 goals/match

1.69 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲1.38 goals/match

1.02 xG/matchExpected goals3/4▲1.42 xG/match

12.4 shots/matchShots16/16▲14.7 shots/match

4.31 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲4.75 shots/match

45.4%Possession16/1650.3%

5.25 corners/matchCorners16/165.44 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards15/132.54 cards/match

12.3 fouls/matchFouls16/1612.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.01 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.01 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples32 / 31home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 May 2026, 23:05 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Lens's recent record differs from the season

Lens show a distinct attacking-volume record

Both teams have elevated corners records

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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