Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 26 Apr 2026, 18:45 UTCFull timeOrange VélodromeFull-time recap

Marseille

WLLWL

1–1Full-time recap

Nice

WLLDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Marseille	Nice
Shots	24 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	2.08 xG/match▲	1.46 xG/match
Possession	69%	31%
Corners	7 corners/match	1 corners/match
Fouls	14 fouls/match	7 fouls/match
Yellow cards	4 cards/match	1 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Marseille: 24 shots, 6 on target, 2.09 xG. Nice: 5 shots, 2 on target, 1.49 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Marseille 2.09 xG · Nice 1.49 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nice's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Marseille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Nice's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nice's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.13 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	1.13 goals/match	1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Marseille show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Marseille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.9 shots/match▲ShotsMarseille · Nice10.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Marseille	Nice	Baseline
Shots	14.9 shots/match	10.9 shots/match	11.4 shots/match
Shots against	9.94 shots/match	14.9 shots/match	12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Marseille have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.5%▲PossessionMarseille · Nice46.2%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Marseille	Nice	Baseline
Possession	57.5%	46.2%	50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Marseille

0Draws

0Nice

21 Nov 2025Nice — Marseille · Ligue 11–5

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Marseille favored in 11 of 14 directional metrics · Nice in 1 · 2 too close

1.9 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 31/311.13 goals/match

1.32 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 31/311.84 goals/match

1.78 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 6/60.91 xG/match

0.92 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 6/61.87 xG/match

14.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 31/3110.9 shots/match

9.94 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 31/3114.9 shots/match

5.55 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 31/313.84 shots/match

3.94 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 31/315.26 shots/match

57.5%Possessionseason · 31/3146.2%

5.29 corners/matchCornersseason · 31/315 corners/match

3.29 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 31/315.55 corners/match

2.44 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/26▲2.27 cards/match

12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/3112.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

26%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/3116%

77%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 31/3168%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Marseille91.7

Nice36.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Marseille88

Nice32.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Marseille75.9

Nice9.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Marseille75

Nice36.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Marseille66.7

Nice61.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 90%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Marseille69.4

Nice63.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Marseille73.6

Nice45.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match

1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match

1.96 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.85 xG/match

18.2 shots/match▲Shots5/57.8 shots/match

5.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match

57.4%Possession5/536.4%

7 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match

—Cards0/1—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.8 goals/match

1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match

1.78 xG/match▲Expected goals6/60.91 xG/match

16.1 shots/match▲Shots10/109.1 shots/match

5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103 shots/match

56%Possession10/1041.8%

6.1 corners/matchCorners10/104.8 corners/match

3.5 cards/matchCards4/51.8 cards/match

12.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1012 fouls/match

Window

Season

31 / 31 matches

1.9 goals/match▲Goals scored31/311.13 goals/match

1.32 goals/match▲Goals allowed31/311.84 goals/match

1.78 xG/match▲Expected goals6/60.91 xG/match

14.9 shots/match▲Shots31/3110.9 shots/match

5.55 shots/match▲Shots on target31/313.84 shots/match

57.5%Possession31/3146.2%

5.29 corners/matchCorners31/315 corners/match

2.44 cards/matchCards25/262.27 cards/match

12.5 fouls/matchFouls31/3112.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 16 matches

2.38 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.06 goals/match

1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.94 goals/match

1.72 xG/match▲Expected goals4/40.8 xG/match

15.1 shots/match▲Shots16/169.31 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on target16/163.25 shots/match

58.7%Possession16/1646.9%

5.69 corners/matchCorners16/164.88 corners/match

2.17 cards/matchCards12/122.58 cards/match

13.1 fouls/matchFouls16/1612.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.16 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.99 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples31 / 31home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Apr 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Nice's recent record differs from the season

Marseille show a distinct attacking-volume record

The teams have contrasting possession records

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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