Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 26 Apr 2026, 15:15 UTCFull timeStade Jean BouinFull-time recap

Paris FC

DWDWW

0–1Full-time recap

Lille

WWWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Paris FC	Lille
Shots	7 shots/match	10 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	4 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.06 xG/match	1.7 xG/match▲
Possession	47%	53%
Corners	7 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	10 fouls/match
Yellow cards	6 cards/match	3 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Paris FC: 7 shots, 2 on target, 1.22 xG. Lille: 10 shots, 4 on target, 1.73 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris FC 1.22 xG · Lille 1.73 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Paris FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Paris FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Paris FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.29 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.2 goals/match	1.29 goals/match	1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris FC have a visible home split

moderate

Paris FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	13 shots/match	11.3 shots/match	11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Paris FC show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Paris FC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match▲ShotsParis FC · Lille13.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Paris FC	Lille	Baseline
Shots	11.3 shots/match	13.6 shots/match	11.4 shots/match
Shots against	12.5 shots/match	9.42 shots/match	12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Paris FC

0Draws

1Lille

23 Nov 2025Lille — Paris FC · Ligue 14–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris FC favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Lille in 11 · 3 too close

1.29 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 31/31▲1.61 goals/match

1.52 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 31/31▲1.1 goals/match

1.38 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 6/6▲1.7 xG/match

1.45 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 6/6▲0.76 xG/match

11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 31/31▲13.6 shots/match

12.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 31/31▲9.42 shots/match

3.77 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 31/31▲4.65 shots/match

4.1 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 31/31▲3.35 shots/match

50.9%Possessionseason · 31/3155.3%

4.39 corners/matchCornersseason · 31/315.61 corners/match

5.52 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 31/31▲3.77 corners/match

2.44 cards/matchCardsseason · 27/27▲2.26 cards/match

10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/3111 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

23%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/31▲39%

71%Scoring frequencyseason · 31/3171%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris FC52.8

Lille86.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris FC38

Lille71.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris FC43.5

Lille88

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris FC25

Lille52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris FC52.8

Lille41.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 94%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris FC41.7

Lille80.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris FC33.4

Lille62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.2 goals/match

1.55 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.71 xG/match

11 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.8 shots/match

4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.4 shots/match

44.4%Possession5/555.8%

5.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match

—Cards2/2—

8 fouls/matchFouls5/59 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.6 goals/match

1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.4 goals/match

1.38 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲1.7 xG/match

11.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.2 shots/match

4.4 shots/matchShots on target10/104.5 shots/match

44.4%Possession10/1057.4%

4.7 corners/matchCorners10/104.8 corners/match

3.67 cards/matchCards6/61.83 cards/match

9.1 fouls/matchFouls10/109.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

31 / 31 matches

1.29 goals/matchGoals scored31/31▲1.61 goals/match

1.52 goals/matchGoals allowed31/31▲1.1 goals/match

1.38 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲1.7 xG/match

11.3 shots/matchShots31/31▲13.6 shots/match

3.77 shots/matchShots on target31/31▲4.65 shots/match

50.9%Possession31/3155.3%

4.39 corners/matchCorners31/315.61 corners/match

2.44 cards/matchCards27/272.26 cards/match

10.7 fouls/matchFouls31/3111 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 16 matches

1.47 goals/matchGoals scored15/16▲1.69 goals/match

1.73 goals/matchGoals allowed15/16▲1.25 goals/match

1.84 xG/match▲Expected goals3/41.54 xG/match

13 shots/matchShots15/1612.9 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target15/16▲4.75 shots/match

53.3%Possession15/1655.4%

5.6 corners/matchCorners15/165.25 corners/match

2.86 cards/matchCards14/142.57 cards/match

11.1 fouls/matchFouls15/1611.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.84 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples31 / 31home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Apr 2026, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Paris FC's recent record differs from the season

Paris FC have a visible home split

Paris FC show a distinct attacking-volume record

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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