PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 2 May 2026, 17:00 UTCFull timeStade Saint-SymphorienFull-time recap

Metz

DDLLD
1–2Full-time recap

Monaco

WWLDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMetzMonaco
Shots13 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target1 shots/match3 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.03 xG/match1.05 xG/match▲
Possession35%65%
Corners5 corners/match9 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Paul Pogba · Monaco · 20′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNathan Mbala · Metz · 39′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDenis Zakaria · Monaco · 41′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAleksandr Golovin · Monaco · 57′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJessy Deminguet · Metz · 49′ · 0.02 xG · goalSimon Adingra · Monaco · 6′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAleksandr Golovin · Monaco · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMaghnes Akliouche · Monaco · 51′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBouna Sarr · Metz · 89′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 61′ · 0.04 xG · goalMamadou Coulibaly · Monaco · 70′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGeorgiy Tsitaishvili · Metz · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGauthier Hein · Metz · 30′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPaul Pogba · Monaco · 40′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGauthier Hein · Metz · 28′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNathan Mbala · Metz · 53′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJessy Deminguet · Metz · 29′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedBouna Sarr · Metz · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Stambouli · Metz · 72′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedThilo Kehrer · Monaco · 84′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAleksandr Golovin · Monaco · 41′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedTerry Yegbe · Metz · 89′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedDenis Zakaria · Monaco · 51′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 66′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedBouna Sarr · Metz · 90′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedAnsu Fati · Monaco · 90′ · 0.17 xG · goalMaghnes Akliouche · Monaco · 28′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedGauthier Hein · Metz · 80′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Metz: 13 shots, 1 on target, 1.01 xG. Monaco: 15 shots, 3 on target, 1.03 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Jessy Deminguet · Metz · 49′Folarin Balogun · Monaco · 61′Ansu Fati · Monaco · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Metz 1.01 xG · Monaco 1.03 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Metz's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Metz's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Metz's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Metz's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metz have a visible home split

moderate

Metz's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season9.94 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12 shots/match9.94 shots/match11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Monaco show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Monaco's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9.94 shots/match▲ShotsMetz · Monaco12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMetzMonacoBaseline
Shots9.94 shots/match12.3 shots/match11.3 shots/match
Shots against15.1 shots/match13.5 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Metz
0Draws
1Monaco
Monaco — Metz · Ligue 15–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Metz favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Monaco in 11 · 2 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 32/32▲1.75 goals/match
2.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 32/32▲1.5 goals/match
1.2 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 7/7▲1.75 xG/match
1.63 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 7/7▲1.5 xG/match
9.94 shots/matchShotsseason · 32/32▲12.3 shots/match
15.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 32/32▲13.5 shots/match
3.19 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 32/32▲4.34 shots/match
5.75 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 32/32▲4.44 shots/match
48.7%Possessionseason · 32/3253.5%
4.16 corners/matchCornersseason · 32/325 corners/match
5.13 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 32/32▲4.41 corners/match
1.85 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 26/262.58 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/3213 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/32▲22%
59%Scoring frequencyseason · 32/32▲81%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Metz47.2
Monaco63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Metz12
Monaco67.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Metz2.8
Monaco32.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Metz2.8
Monaco30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Metz25
Monaco83.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 91%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Metz30.6
Monaco58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Metz18.1
Monaco62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲2 goals/match
1.28 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.54 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShots5/512.6 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.4 shots/match
50.2%Possession5/559.2%
5 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match
—Cards1/0—
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.1 goals/match
2.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match
1.2 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲1.75 xG/match
11.9 shots/matchShots10/1012 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.7 shots/match
48%Possession10/1054.3%
4.8 corners/matchCorners10/105.1 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards4/41.75 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

32 / 32 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored32/32▲1.75 goals/match
2.25 goals/matchGoals allowed32/32▲1.5 goals/match
1.2 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲1.75 xG/match
9.94 shots/matchShots32/32▲12.3 shots/match
3.19 shots/matchShots on target32/32▲4.34 shots/match
48.7%Possession32/3253.5%
4.16 corners/matchCorners32/325 corners/match
1.85 cards/matchCards26/262.58 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls32/3213 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 16 matches
0.94 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.44 goals/match
1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲1.63 goals/match
1.52 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.61 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots16/1612.1 shots/match
3.94 shots/matchShots on target16/164.06 shots/match
49.8%Possession16/1652.4%
4.81 corners/matchCorners16/165.06 corners/match
1.54 cards/matchCards13/133.08 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls16/1613.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.07 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.91 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples32 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 May 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMetzMonaco
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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