PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 8 May 2026, 18:45 UTCFull timeStade Bollaert-DelelisFull-time recap

Lens

WLWDD
1–0Full-time recap

Nantes

DDLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLensNantes
Shots14 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals0.77 xG/match1.11 xG/match▲
Possession64%36%
Corners8 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Matthis Abline · Nantes · 31′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMatthieu Udol · Lens · 51′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAbdallah Sima · Lens · 48′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAbdallah Sima · Lens · 13′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Kaba · Nantes · 20′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndrija Bulatovic · Lens · 26′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMatthieu Udol · Lens · 48′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMohamed Kaba · Nantes · 54′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMatthis Abline · Nantes · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJohann Lepenant · Nantes · 74′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAndrija Bulatovic · Lens · 77′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 27′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 53′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJohann Lepenant · Nantes · 56′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMalang Sarr · Lens · 89′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Lopes · Nantes · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIgnatius Ganago · Nantes · 10′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRayan Fofana · Lens · 14′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAndrija Bulatovic · Lens · 51′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIbrahima Sissoko · Nantes · 61′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Bermont · Lens · 86′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAndrija Bulatovic · Lens · 3′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedIgnatius Ganago · Nantes · 28′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 56′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · Lens · 8′ · 0.09 xG · on targetMatthieu Udol · Lens · 39′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMezian Soares · Lens · 79′ · 0.15 xG · goalIgnatius Ganago · Nantes · 43′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 75′ · 0.39 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lens: 14 shots, 5 on target, 0.75 xG. Nantes: 15 shots, 3 on target, 1.12 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Mezian Soares · Lens · 79′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lens 0.75 xG · Nantes 1.12 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nantes's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Lens's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Nantes's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nantes's last-five shots average is above their season average.

16.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots16.6 shots/match11.3 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lens show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Lens's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.3 shots/match▲ShotsLens · Nantes11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLensNantesBaseline
Shots16.3 shots/match11.3 shots/match11.4 shots/match
Shots against11 shots/match13.5 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Lens have recorded the higher season possession share.

51.7%▲PossessionLens · Nantes42%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLensNantesBaseline
Possession51.7%42%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Lens
0Draws
0Nantes
Nantes — Lens · Ligue 11–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lens favored in 11 of 14 directional metrics · Nantes in 0 · 3 too close

1.94 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 32/330.88 goals/match
1.03 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 32/331.58 goals/match
1.92 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 7/81.48 xG/match
1.3 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 7/81.43 xG/match
16.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 32/3311.3 shots/match
11 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 32/3313.5 shots/match
5.47 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 32/333.27 shots/match
3.47 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 32/334.85 shots/match
51.7%Possessionseason · 32/3342%
6.13 corners/matchCornersseason · 32/333.7 corners/match
3.69 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 32/335.7 corners/match
2.15 cards/matchCardsseason · 27/272.07 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/3312.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
34%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/3321%
84%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 32/3358%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lens58.3
Nantes2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lens89.8
Nantes21.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lens86.1
Nantes23.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lens97.2
Nantes86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lens55.5
Nantes50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 91%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lens91.7
Nantes13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lens83.3
Nantes31.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1.77 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.66 xG/match
20.4 shots/match▲Shots5/516.6 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.8 shots/match
60.8%Possession5/537.6%
7.8 corners/matchCorners5/57 corners/match
—Cards2/1—
11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.7 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match
1.92 xG/match▲Expected goals7/81.48 xG/match
21.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1013.2 shots/match
6.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.3 shots/match
57.6%Possession10/1038%
7.6 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/41.75 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

32 / 33 matches
1.94 goals/match▲Goals scored32/330.88 goals/match
1.03 goals/match▲Goals allowed32/331.58 goals/match
1.92 xG/match▲Expected goals7/81.48 xG/match
16.3 shots/match▲Shots32/3311.3 shots/match
5.47 shots/match▲Shots on target32/333.27 shots/match
51.7%Possession32/3342%
6.13 corners/matchCorners32/333.7 corners/match
2.15 cards/matchCards27/272.07 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls32/3312.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 17 matches
2.19 goals/match▲Goals scored16/170.65 goals/match
0.69 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/171.47 goals/match
2.58 xG/match▲Expected goals3/51.25 xG/match
17.9 shots/match▲Shots16/1710.6 shots/match
6.19 shots/match▲Shots on target16/173.12 shots/match
53.1%Possession16/1740.4%
6.81 corners/matchCorners16/173.41 corners/match
1.79 cards/matchCards14/132.23 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls16/1712.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.99 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.24 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples32 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 8 May 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLensNantes
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match