PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 24 Apr 2026, 18:45 UTCFull timeStade Francis-Le BléFull-time recap
3–3Full-time recap

Lens

WLWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricStade Brestois 29Lens
Shots6 shots/match25 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.2 xG/match2.65 xG/match▲
Possession36%64%
Corners0 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Daouda Guindo · Stade Brestois 29 · 8′ · 0.01 xG · goalMamadou Sangare · Lens · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Sangare · Lens · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Sangare · Lens · 78′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAllan Saint-Maximin · Lens · 80′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAllan Saint-Maximin · Lens · 90′ · 0.02 xG · goalJoris Chotard · Stade Brestois 29 · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 54′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIsmaelo Ganiou · Lens · 40′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Sangare · Lens · 76′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAbdallah Sima · Lens · 4′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLucas Tousart · Stade Brestois 29 · 24′ · 0.05 xG · goalAbdallah Sima · Lens · 27′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 60′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 21′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJunior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 · 42′ · 0.08 xG · goalMamadou Sangare · Lens · 5′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAbdallah Sima · Lens · 38′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAbdallah Sima · Lens · 17′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAbdallah Sima · Lens · 60′ · 0.12 xG · on targetAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 71′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 60′ · 0.14 xG · goalAbdallah Sima · Lens · 64′ · 0.17 xG · goalAbdallah Sima · Lens · 57′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 87′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 90′ · 0.20 xG · on targetSaud Abdulhamid · Lens · 90′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 90′ · 0.30 xG · on targetAbdallah Sima · Lens · 57′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 48′ · 0.36 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Stade Brestois 29: 6 shots, 3 on target, 0.22 xG. Lens: 25 shots, 7 on target, 3.12 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Daouda Guindo · Stade Brestois 29 · 8′Lucas Tousart · Stade Brestois 29 · 24′Junior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 · 42′Florian Thauvin · Lens · 60′Abdallah Sima · Lens · 64′Allan Saint-Maximin · Lens · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Stade Brestois 29 0.22 xG · Lens 3.12 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lens's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Lens's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Lens's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lens's last-five shots average is above their season average.

23.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season16.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots23.6 shots/match16.4 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lens show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Lens's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.8 shots/match▲ShotsStade Brestois 29 · Lens16.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricStade Brestois 29LensBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match16.4 shots/match11.4 shots/match
Shots against13.8 shots/match10.9 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Stade Brestois 29 have a visible home split

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.1 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.1 shots/match10.8 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Stade Brestois 29
0Draws
1Lens
Lens — Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 13–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Stade Brestois 29 favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Lens in 11 · 3 too close

1.37 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 30/30▲2 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 30/30▲1.07 goals/match
0.82 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 5/5▲2.31 xG/match
1.94 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 5/5▲1.44 xG/match
10.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 30/30▲16.4 shots/match
13.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 30/30▲10.9 shots/match
3.53 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 30/30▲5.53 shots/match
4.57 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 30/30▲3.53 shots/match
43%Possessionseason · 30/3051.2%
3.83 corners/matchCornersseason · 30/306 corners/match
5.7 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 30/30▲3.6 corners/match
2 cards/matchCardsseason · 27/262.08 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3012.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
30%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/30▲33%
70%Scoring frequencyseason · 30/30▲83%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Stade Brestois 2919.4
Lens58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Stade Brestois 2933.3
Lens90.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Stade Brestois 2923.1
Lens83.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Stade Brestois 2969.4
Lens97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2954.1
Lens55.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 93%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2919.4
Lens91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Stade Brestois 2936.1
Lens84
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.4 goals/match
2.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲2.2 goals/match
0.82 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲2.31 xG/match
7.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲23.6 shots/match
2.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7.2 shots/match
46.6%Possession5/561.8%
2.8 corners/matchCorners5/57.8 corners/match
—Cards2/1—
11.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.6 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
0.82 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲2.31 xG/match
8.9 shots/matchShots10/10▲21.1 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.4 shots/match
41.3%Possession10/1055.1%
3 corners/matchCorners10/106.9 corners/match
2.14 cards/matchCards7/61.83 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

30 / 30 matches
1.37 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲2 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowed30/30▲1.07 goals/match
0.82 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲2.31 xG/match
10.8 shots/matchShots30/30▲16.4 shots/match
3.53 shots/matchShots on target30/30▲5.53 shots/match
43%Possession30/3051.2%
3.83 corners/matchCorners30/306 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards27/262.08 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls30/3012.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches
1.73 goals/matchGoals scored15/151.73 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed15/151.4 goals/match
—Expected goals2/31.53 xG/match
13.1 shots/matchShots15/15▲14.6 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲4.8 shots/match
43.2%Possession15/1550.1%
4.53 corners/matchCorners15/155.27 corners/match
1.77 cards/matchCards13/122.42 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls15/1513.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 24 Apr 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsStade Brestois 29Lens
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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