Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 17 Apr 2026, 18:45 UTCFull timeStade Bollaert-DelelisFull-time recap

Lens

DWLWL

3–2Full-time recap

Toulouse

LWWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Lens	Toulouse
Shots	42 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Shots on target	13 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	3.77 xG/match▲	0.41 xG/match
Possession	78%	22%
Corners	14 corners/match	1 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	15 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match	1 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Lens: 41 shots, 13 on target, 3.74 xG. Toulouse: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.41 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lens 3.74 xG · Toulouse 0.41 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lens's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Lens's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Lens's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lens's last-five shots average is above their season average.

23.4 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season16.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	23.4 shots/match	16.1 shots/match	11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lens show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Lens's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.1 shots/match▲ShotsLens · Toulouse12.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Lens	Toulouse	Baseline
Shots	16.1 shots/match	12.5 shots/match	11.4 shots/match
Shots against	11.1 shots/match	12.3 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Toulouse have a visible away split

moderate

Toulouse's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.5 shots/match	12.5 shots/match	11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Lens

0Draws

0Toulouse

2 Jan 2026Toulouse — Lens · Ligue 10–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lens favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Toulouse in 0 · 4 too close

1.97 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 29/301.37 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 29/301.4 goals/match

2.23 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/50.82 xG/match

1.75 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/51.89 xG/match

16.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 29/3012.5 shots/match

11.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 29/3012.3 shots/match

5.48 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 29/304.17 shots/match

3.55 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 29/304.07 shots/match

50.8%Possessionseason · 29/3041.9%

6 corners/matchCornersseason · 29/304.43 corners/match

3.72 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 29/305.03 corners/match

2.08 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 26/272.37 cards/match

13 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/3014 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

34%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/3030%

83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 29/3067%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lens52.8

Toulouse2.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lens88

Toulouse58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lens83.3

Toulouse49.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lens97.2

Toulouse91.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lens58.3

Toulouse88.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 95%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lens97.2

Toulouse47.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lens86.1

Toulouse66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match

1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.6 goals/match

2.23 xG/match▲Expected goals4/50.82 xG/match

23.4 shots/match▲Shots5/510 shots/match

7.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.8 shots/match

59.4%Possession5/535.8%

7.8 corners/matchCorners5/52.4 corners/match

—Cards2/2—

10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match

1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match

2.23 xG/match▲Expected goals4/50.82 xG/match

20.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1013.1 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.2 shots/match

54.1%Possession10/1043.4%

6.7 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match

1.71 cards/matchCards7/72.43 cards/match

11.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

29 / 30 matches

1.97 goals/match▲Goals scored29/301.37 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed29/301.4 goals/match

2.23 xG/match▲Expected goals4/50.82 xG/match

16.1 shots/match▲Shots29/3012.5 shots/match

5.48 shots/match▲Shots on target29/304.17 shots/match

50.8%Possession29/3041.9%

6 corners/matchCorners29/304.43 corners/match

2.08 cards/matchCards26/272.37 cards/match

13 fouls/matchFouls29/3014 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches

2.27 goals/match▲Goals scored15/151.33 goals/match

0.73 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.4 goals/match

—Expected goals2/30.66 xG/match

18.1 shots/match▲Shots15/1510.5 shots/match

6.27 shots/match▲Shots on target15/153.6 shots/match

52.4%Possession15/1540.9%

6.73 corners/matchCorners15/153.87 corners/match

1.79 cards/matchCards14/133.15 cards/match

12.7 fouls/matchFouls15/1514.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.15 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples29 / 30home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 17 Apr 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Lens's recent record differs from the season

Lens show a distinct attacking-volume record

Toulouse have a visible away split

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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