PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Stade Bollaert-Delelis

RC Lens 3–2 Toulouse · Ligue 1

RC Lens

DWLWL
3–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

RC Lens won 3–2.

Shots
415
Shots on target
132
Expected goals
3.760.41
Possession
78%22%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lens beat Toulouse 3–2. Recorded in this match (Lens – Toulouse): shots 41–5, shots on target 13–2, expected goals 3.76–0.41, possession 78%–22%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Lens's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lens's last-five shots average is above their season average.

23.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season16.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots23.2 shots/match16.1 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lens show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Lens's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.1 shots/match ▲ShotsLens · Toulouse12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLensToulouseBaseline
Shots16.1 shots/match12.5 shots/match11.4 shots/match
Shots against11.1 shots/match12.3 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Toulouse have a visible away split

moderate

Toulouse's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.5 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots41 shots5 shotsRC Lens 41 shots, Toulouse 5 shots
  • Shots on target13 shots2 shotsRC Lens 13 shots, Toulouse 2 shots
  • Expected goals3.76 xG0.41 xGRC Lens 3.76 xG, Toulouse 0.41 xG
  • Possession78%22%RC Lens 78%, Toulouse 22%
  • Corners14 corners1 cornerRC Lens 14 corners, Toulouse 1 corner
  • Fouls9 fouls15 foulsRC Lens 9 fouls, Toulouse 15 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardRC Lens 1 card, Toulouse 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Adrien Thomasson · Lens · 74′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAllan Saint-Maximin · Lens · 78′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 6′ · 0.02 xG · goalSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 8′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedArthur Masuaku · Lens · 34′ · 0.02 xG · on targetIsmaelo Ganiou · Lens · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Sotoca · Lens · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatthieu Udol · Lens · 45′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMalang Sarr · Lens · 49′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPape Diop · Toulouse · 61′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 82′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAllan Saint-Maximin · Lens · 86′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatthieu Udol · Lens · 22′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMalang Sarr · Lens · 26′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · Lens · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Sangare · Lens · 53′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · Lens · 53′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMamadou Sangare · Lens · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 60′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMalang Sarr · Lens · 67′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAllan Saint-Maximin · Lens · 84′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMatthieu Udol · Lens · 22′ · 0.05 xG · on targetIsmaelo Ganiou · Lens · 26′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 70′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRayan Fofana · Lens · 33′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Sangare · Lens · 56′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMatthieu Udol · Lens · 59′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 89′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 86′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · Lens · 9′ · 0.10 xG · on targetAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 57′ · 0.10 xG · on targetRayan Fofana · Lens · 32′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 59′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedIsmaelo Ganiou · Lens · 59′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 42′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · Lens · 50′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedSaud Abdulhamid · Lens · 61′ · 0.12 xG · goalOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 89′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 8′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedIsmaelo Ganiou · Lens · 90′ · 0.17 xG · goalWesley Saïd · Lens · 21′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedSeny Koumbassa · Toulouse · 13′ · 0.21 xG · goalMatthieu Udol · Lens · 60′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 83′ · 0.40 xG · on targetAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 67′ · 0.63 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lens: 41 shots, 13 on target, 3.74 xG. Toulouse: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.41 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0240′HT90′Saud Abdulhamid · Lens · 61′Adrien Thomasson · Lens · 67′Ismaelo Ganiou · Lens · 90′Cristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 6′Seny Koumbassa · Toulouse · 13′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lens 3.74 xG · Toulouse 0.41 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3RC Lens
1Draws
1Toulouse
Toulouse — RC Lens · Ligue 10–3
Toulouse — RC Lens · Ligue 11–1
RC Lens — Toulouse · Ligue 10–1
Toulouse — RC Lens · Ligue 10–2
RC Lens — Toulouse · Ligue 12–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: RC Lens favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Toulouse in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

RC Lens29 matchesToulouse30 matches
1.97 goals/match ▲Goals scored29/301.37 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed29/301.4 goals/match
1.99 xG/match ▲Expected goals29/301.29 xG/match
16.1 shots/match ▲Shots29/3012.5 shots/match
5.48 shots/match ▲Shots on target29/304.2 shots/match
50.8% ●Possession29/3041.9%
6.07 corners/match ●Corners29/304.43 corners/match
2.08 cards/matchCards26/272.37 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls29/3014.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 17 Apr 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRC LensToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2025/26
Head-to-headRC Lens — Toulouse
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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