Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 12 Apr 2026, 15:15 UTCFull timeStadium de ToulouseFull-time recap

Toulouse

LLWWL

0–4Full-time recap

Lille

WDWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Toulouse	Lille
Shots	9 shots/match	16 shots/match▲
Shots on target	1 shots/match	10 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.96 xG/match	1.84 xG/match▲
Possession	37%	63%
Corners	4 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	11 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	0 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Toulouse: 9 shots, 1 on target, 0.96 xG. Lille: 15 shots, 9 on target, 1.88 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Toulouse 0.96 xG · Lille 1.88 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lille's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Lille have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Lille's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lille's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.69 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.4 goals/match	1.69 goals/match	1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Lille have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.6%▲PossessionToulouse · Lille55.1%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.5 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Toulouse	Lille	Baseline
Possession	42.6%	55.1%	49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Toulouse

0Draws

1Lille

14 Sept 2025Lille — Toulouse · Ligue 12–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Toulouse favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Lille in 10 · 4 too close

1.34 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 29/29▲1.69 goals/match

1.34 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 29/29▲1.17 goals/match

0.92 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/42.02 xG/match

1.42 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/40.83 xG/match

12.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 29/29▲13.9 shots/match

11.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 29/29▲9.66 shots/match

4.24 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 29/29▲4.76 shots/match

3.76 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 29/29▲3.48 shots/match

42.6%Possessionseason · 29/2955.1%

4.55 corners/matchCornersseason · 29/295.72 corners/match

4.72 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 29/29▲3.69 corners/match

2.38 cards/matchCardsseason · 26/26▲2.23 cards/match

14 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2911.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

31%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/29▲34%

66%Scoring frequencyseason · 29/29▲72%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Toulouse8.3

Lille80.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Toulouse58.3

Lille75.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Toulouse67.6

Lille88

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Toulouse91.7

Lille69.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Toulouse88.9

Lille41.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 95%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Toulouse47.2

Lille91.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Toulouse66.7

Lille66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.4 goals/match

2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match

0.92 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲2.02 xG/match

11.4 shots/matchShots5/512 shots/match

2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.2 shots/match

41.2%Possession5/552.4%

3 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match

—Cards2/2—

12.4 fouls/matchFouls5/59.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.5 goals/match

0.92 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲2.02 xG/match

13.8 shots/match▲Shots10/1013 shots/match

4.4 shots/matchShots on target10/104.5 shots/match

46.2%Possession10/1057.5%

4.8 corners/matchCorners10/105.3 corners/match

2.29 cards/matchCards7/71.86 cards/match

13.2 fouls/matchFouls10/109.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

29 / 29 matches

1.34 goals/matchGoals scored29/29▲1.69 goals/match

1.34 goals/matchGoals allowed29/29▲1.17 goals/match

0.92 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲2.02 xG/match

12.8 shots/matchShots29/29▲13.9 shots/match

4.24 shots/matchShots on target29/29▲4.76 shots/match

42.6%Possession29/2955.1%

4.55 corners/matchCorners29/295.72 corners/match

2.38 cards/matchCards26/262.23 cards/match

14 fouls/matchFouls29/2911.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲1.73 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed15/151.33 goals/match

—Expected goals2/31.48 xG/match

14.5 shots/match▲Shots15/1513.1 shots/match

4.73 shots/matchShots on target15/154.8 shots/match

42.9%Possession15/1555.6%

5 corners/matchCorners15/155.4 corners/match

1.64 cards/matchCards14/132.54 cards/match

13.3 fouls/matchFouls15/1511.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.85 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.84 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples29 / 29home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 12 Apr 2026, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Lille's recent record differs from the season

The teams have contrasting possession records

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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