Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 19 Apr 2026, 15:15 UTCFull timeStade de la BeaujoireFull-time recap

Nantes

LLLDD

1–1Full-time recap

Stade Brestois 29

WWLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nantes	Stade Brestois 29
Shots	17 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	0.91 xG/match▲	0.36 xG/match
Possession	43%	57%
Corners	11 corners/match	0 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	17 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Nantes: 17 shots, 4 on target, 0.90 xG. Stade Brestois 29: 4 shots, 2 on target, 0.35 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nantes 0.90 xG · Stade Brestois 29 0.35 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nantes's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Stade Brestois 29's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Nantes's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nantes's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.86 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	0.86 goals/match	1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Stade Brestois 29 have a visible away split

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.6 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	8.6 shots/match	11 shots/match	11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Nantes

1Draws

0Stade Brestois 29

4 Oct 2025Stade Brestois 29 — Nantes · Ligue 10–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nantes favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Stade Brestois 29 in 4 · 10 too close

0.86 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 29/29▲1.31 goals/match

1.59 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 29/291.52 goals/match

1.12 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/40.98 xG/match

1.37 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/41.77 xG/match

10.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 29/2911 shots/match

13.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 29/2913.4 shots/match

3.03 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 29/29▲3.55 shots/match

4.69 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 29/294.48 shots/match

42.8%Possessionseason · 29/2943.2%

3.38 corners/matchCornersseason · 29/293.97 corners/match

5.48 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 29/295.69 corners/match

2.07 cards/matchCardsseason · 27/272 cards/match

12.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2913.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

21%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/29▲31%

59%Scoring frequencyseason · 29/29▲69%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nantes13.9

Stade Brestois 2919.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nantes12

Stade Brestois 2928.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nantes21.3

Stade Brestois 2926.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nantes52.8

Stade Brestois 2969.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nantes50

Stade Brestois 2954.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nantes8.3

Stade Brestois 2919.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nantes22.2

Stade Brestois 2936.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match

1.12 xG/match▲Expected goals4/40.98 xG/match

12.6 shots/match▲Shots5/58.4 shots/match

4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.2 shots/match

41.6%Possession5/547.6%

4.4 corners/matchCorners5/53 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards3/33 cards/match

13.2 fouls/matchFouls5/513.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.3 goals/match

1.12 xG/match▲Expected goals4/40.98 xG/match

11.1 shots/match▲Shots10/109.5 shots/match

3.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.7 shots/match

41.4%Possession10/1041.7%

4 corners/matchCorners10/103.5 corners/match

2.75 cards/matchCards8/82.25 cards/match

13.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

29 / 29 matches

0.86 goals/matchGoals scored29/29▲1.31 goals/match

1.59 goals/matchGoals allowed29/291.52 goals/match

1.12 xG/match▲Expected goals4/40.98 xG/match

10.6 shots/matchShots29/2911 shots/match

3.03 shots/matchShots on target29/29▲3.55 shots/match

42.8%Possession29/2943.2%

3.38 corners/matchCorners29/293.97 corners/match

2.07 cards/matchCards27/272 cards/match

12.8 fouls/matchFouls29/2913.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 15 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored15/151 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed15/151.8 goals/match

—Expected goals2/30.89 xG/match

11.8 shots/match▲Shots15/158.6 shots/match

3.33 shots/match▲Shots on target15/152.67 shots/match

43.8%Possession15/1542.7%

3.8 corners/matchCorners15/153.13 corners/match

1.93 cards/matchCards14/142.21 cards/match

12.6 fouls/matchFouls15/1513.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.93 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.9 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples29 / 29home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Apr 2026, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Nantes's recent record differs from the season

Stade Brestois 29 have a visible away split

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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