PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Parc des Princes

Paris Saint-Germain 3–1 Toulouse · Ligue 1

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Paris Saint-Germain won 3–1.

Shots
175
Shots on target
71
Expected goals
1.790.16
Possession
72%28%

Full time

What the match recorded

Paris Saint Germain beat Toulouse 3–1. Recorded in this match (Paris Saint Germain – Toulouse): shots 17–5, shots on target 7–1, expected goals 1.79–0.16, possession 72%–28%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

68.9% ●PossessionParis Saint Germain · Toulouse42.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 26.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint GermainToulouseBaseline
Possession68.9%42.8%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.8 shots/match ▲ShotsParis Saint Germain · Toulouse12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint GermainToulouseBaseline
Shots17.8 shots/match12.9 shots/match11.5 shots/match
Shots against8.37 shots/match11.1 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Toulouse have a visible away split

moderate

Toulouse's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.9 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.9 shots/match12.9 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots5 shotsParis Saint-Germain 17 shots, Toulouse 5 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots1 shotParis Saint-Germain 7 shots, Toulouse 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.79 xG0.16 xGParis Saint-Germain 1.79 xG, Toulouse 0.16 xG
  • Possession72%28%Paris Saint-Germain 72%, Toulouse 28%
  • Corners5 corners2 cornersParis Saint-Germain 5 corners, Toulouse 2 corners
  • Fouls4 fouls13 foulsParis Saint-Germain 4 fouls, Toulouse 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards1 cardParis Saint-Germain 0 cards, Toulouse 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Pape Diop · Toulouse · 47′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 3′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 66′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint Germain · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 14′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPape Diop · Toulouse · 16′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 73′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 3′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse · 27′ · 0.04 xG · goalKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 51′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 90′ · 0.04 xG · goalOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 23′ · 0.05 xG · goalKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 33′ · 0.05 xG · on targetDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 37′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoão Neves · Paris Saint Germain · 63′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEmersonn · Toulouse · 75′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 54′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint Germain · 21′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedIlya Zabarnyi · Paris Saint Germain · 63′ · 0.16 xG · on targetWillian Pacho · Paris Saint Germain · 63′ · 0.17 xG · on targetOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 33′ · 0.87 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris Saint Germain: 17 shots, 7 on target, 1.81 xG. Toulouse: 5 shots, 1 on target, 0.16 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Ousmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 23′Ousmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 33′Gonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 90′Rasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse · 27′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris Saint Germain 1.81 xG · Toulouse 0.16 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Paris Saint-Germain
1Draws
1Toulouse
Toulouse — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 13–6
Toulouse — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 10–1
Paris Saint-Germain — Toulouse · Ligue 13–0
Paris Saint-Germain — Toulouse · Ligue 11–3
Toulouse — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 11–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Paris Saint-Germain favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Toulouse in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Paris Saint-Germain27 matchesToulouse28 matches
2.26 goals/match ▲Goals scored27/281.39 goals/match
0.85 goals/match ▲Goals allowed27/281.25 goals/match
2.07 xG/match ▲Expected goals27/281.33 xG/match
17.8 shots/match ▲Shots27/2812.9 shots/match
6.93 shots/match ▲Shots on target27/284.39 shots/match
68.9% ●Possession27/2842.8%
5.96 corners/match ●Corners27/284.57 corners/match
1 card/matchCards26/252.36 cards/match
9.7 fouls/matchFouls27/2814.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 3 Apr 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsParis Saint-GermainToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2025/26
Head-to-headParis Saint-Germain — Toulouse
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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