PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 3 Apr 2026, 18:45 UTCFull timeParc des PrincesFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricParis Saint GermainToulouse
Shots17 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Expected goals1.79 xG/match▲0.16 xG/match
Possession72%28%
Corners5 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls4 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲1 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Pape Diop · Toulouse · 47′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 3′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 66′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint Germain · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 14′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPape Diop · Toulouse · 16′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 73′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 3′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse · 27′ · 0.04 xG · goalKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 51′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 90′ · 0.04 xG · goalOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 23′ · 0.05 xG · goalKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 33′ · 0.05 xG · on targetDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 37′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoão Neves · Paris Saint Germain · 63′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEmersonn · Toulouse · 75′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 54′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint Germain · 21′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedIlya Zabarnyi · Paris Saint Germain · 63′ · 0.16 xG · on targetWillian Pacho · Paris Saint Germain · 63′ · 0.17 xG · on targetOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 33′ · 0.87 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris Saint Germain: 17 shots, 7 on target, 1.81 xG. Toulouse: 5 shots, 1 on target, 0.16 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Ousmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 23′Ousmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 33′Gonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 90′Rasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse · 27′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris Saint Germain 1.81 xG · Toulouse 0.16 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share. A second useful context is: Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

68.9%▲PossessionParis Saint Germain · Toulouse42.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 26.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint GermainToulouseBaseline
Possession68.9%42.8%49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.8 shots/match▲ShotsParis Saint Germain · Toulouse12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint GermainToulouseBaseline
Shots17.8 shots/match12.9 shots/match11.4 shots/match
Shots against8.37 shots/match11.1 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Toulouse have a visible away split

moderate

Toulouse's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.9 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.9 shots/match12.9 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Paris Saint Germain
0Draws
0Toulouse
Toulouse — Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 13–6

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris Saint Germain favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Toulouse in 0 · 4 too close

2.26 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 27/281.39 goals/match
0.85 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 27/281.25 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 2/30.91 xG/match
—Expected goals allowedseason · 2/31.28 xG/match
17.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 27/2812.9 shots/match
8.37 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 27/2811.1 shots/match
6.93 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 27/284.36 shots/match
2.78 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 27/283.54 shots/match
68.9%Possessionseason · 27/2842.8%
5.96 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/284.57 corners/match
2.89 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 27/284.82 corners/match
1 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 26/252.36 cards/match
9.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2814 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
52%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2832%
93%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2868%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris Saint Germain97.2
Toulouse8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris Saint Germain97.2
Toulouse60.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris Saint Germain97.2
Toulouse78.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris Saint Germain80.6
Toulouse91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain4.2
Toulouse88.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 95%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain94.4
Toulouse47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris Saint Germain73.6
Toulouse68
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals2/30.91 xG/match
18.2 shots/match▲Shots5/511.4 shots/match
7.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53 shots/match
70.6%Possession5/540.8%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/52.4 corners/match
0.5 cards/matchCards4/2—
8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.2 goals/match
—Expected goals2/30.91 xG/match
17.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1013.7 shots/match
7.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.8 shots/match
67.6%Possession10/1047%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.6 corners/match
0.67 cards/matchCards9/72.29 cards/match
9.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

27 / 28 matches
2.26 goals/match▲Goals scored27/281.39 goals/match
0.85 goals/match▲Goals allowed27/281.25 goals/match
—Expected goals2/30.91 xG/match
17.8 shots/match▲Shots27/2812.9 shots/match
6.93 shots/match▲Shots on target27/284.36 shots/match
68.9%Possession27/2842.8%
5.96 corners/matchCorners27/284.57 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards26/252.36 cards/match
9.7 fouls/matchFouls27/2814 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 14 matches
2.62 goals/match▲Goals scored13/141.29 goals/match
0.62 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/141.29 goals/match
—Expected goals1/2—
19.8 shots/match▲Shots13/1410.9 shots/match
7.23 shots/match▲Shots on target13/143.71 shots/match
69%Possession13/1442.3%
6.31 corners/matchCorners13/144.07 corners/match
1.08 cards/matchCards12/123.25 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls13/1414.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

12.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples27 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 3 Apr 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsParis Saint GermainToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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