PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 4 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTCFull timeStade Francis-Le BléFull-time recap
3–4Full-time recap

Rennes

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricStade Brestois 29Rennes
Shots10 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.22 xG/match2.89 xG/match▲
Possession40%60%
Corners3 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲4 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Remy Labeau Lascary · Stade Brestois 29 · 3′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 23′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 · 41′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRemy Labeau Lascary · Stade Brestois 29 · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Blas · Rennes · 58′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBreel Embolo · Rennes · 58′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Rennes · 5′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAbdelhamid Ait Boudlal · Rennes · 12′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLudovic Blas · Rennes · 48′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPathé Mboup · Stade Brestois 29 · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBreel Embolo · Rennes · 7′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Rennes · 65′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAbdelhamid Ait Boudlal · Rennes · 42′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedBreel Embolo · Rennes · 48′ · 0.09 xG · on targetJunior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 · 4′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Blas · Rennes · 49′ · 0.12 xG · on targetLudovic Blas · Rennes · 20′ · 0.16 xG · goalJunior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 · 57′ · 0.16 xG · goalMahdi Camara · Rennes · 18′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedJunior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 · 4′ · 0.22 xG · goalBreel Embolo · Rennes · 63′ · 0.39 xG · goalRemy Labeau Lascary · Stade Brestois 29 · 70′ · 0.47 xG · goalEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 35′ · 0.82 xG · goalEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 74′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Stade Brestois 29: 10 shots, 4 on target, 1.17 xG. Rennes: 15 shots, 7 on target, 2.97 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Junior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 · 4′Junior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 · 57′Remy Labeau Lascary · Stade Brestois 29 · 70′Ludovic Blas · Rennes · 20′Esteban Lepaul · Rennes · 35′Breel Embolo · Rennes · 63′Esteban Lepaul · Rennes · 74′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Stade Brestois 29 1.17 xG · Rennes 2.97 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Stade Brestois 29's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Stade Brestois 29's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Stade Brestois 29's recent record differs from the season

weak

Stade Brestois 29's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots8.8 shots/match11.3 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Stade Brestois 29 have a visible home split

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.6 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.6 shots/match11.3 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Rennes show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Rennes's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match▲ShotsStade Brestois 29 · Rennes13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricStade Brestois 29RennesBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match13.5 shots/match11.5 shots/match
Shots against13.3 shots/match13 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Stade Brestois 29
0Draws
1Rennes
Rennes — Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 13–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Stade Brestois 29 favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Rennes in 7 · 7 too close

1.32 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 28/28▲1.68 goals/match
1.54 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 28/28▲1.43 goals/match
1.18 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/31.84 xG/match
2.05 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/31.06 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 28/28▲13.5 shots/match
13.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 28/2813 shots/match
3.61 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 28/28▲4.71 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 28/28▲4 shots/match
42.7%Possessionseason · 28/2853.4%
4.11 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/285.5 corners/match
5.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 28/28▲4.64 corners/match
2 cards/matchCardsseason · 26/251.92 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2812.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
32%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/2832%
68%Scoring frequencyseason · 28/28▲79%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Stade Brestois 292.8
Rennes69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Stade Brestois 2938
Rennes76.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Stade Brestois 2926.9
Rennes45.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Stade Brestois 2986.1
Rennes69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2955.5
Rennes33.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 95%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2930.6
Rennes80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Stade Brestois 2944.5
Rennes69.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
1.18 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲1.84 xG/match
8.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.8 shots/match
2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.4 shots/match
43%Possession5/562.6%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards3/2—
12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
1.18 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲1.84 xG/match
10.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.3 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.8 shots/match
41.5%Possession10/1057.5%
3.8 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards8/71.71 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

28 / 28 matches
1.32 goals/matchGoals scored28/28▲1.68 goals/match
1.54 goals/matchGoals allowed28/28▲1.43 goals/match
1.18 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲1.84 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots28/28▲13.5 shots/match
3.61 shots/matchShots on target28/28▲4.71 shots/match
42.7%Possession28/2853.4%
4.11 corners/matchCorners28/285.5 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards26/251.92 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls28/2812.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 14 matches
1.64 goals/matchGoals scored14/141.64 goals/match
1.21 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.86 goals/match
—Expected goals1/1—
13.6 shots/match▲Shots14/1410.8 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target14/144 shots/match
43.7%Possession14/1453%
4.86 corners/matchCorners14/144.93 corners/match
1.77 cards/matchCards13/132.08 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Apr 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsStade Brestois 29Rennes
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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