PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 6 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeParc des PrincesFull-time recap
1–3Full-time recap

Monaco

WDWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricParis Saint GermainMonaco
Shots19 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Possession72%28%
Corners7 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match6 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Achraf Hakimi · Paris Saint Germain · 10′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Coulibaly · Monaco · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAleksandr Golovin · Monaco · 57′ · 0.02 xG · on targetFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 73′ · 0.02 xG · goalBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 79′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNuno Mendes · Paris Saint Germain · 84′ · 0.03 xG · on targetVitinha · Paris Saint Germain · 85′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint Germain · 26′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDro Fernández · Paris Saint Germain · 22′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 39′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 50′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 70′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 71′ · 0.05 xG · goalGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 84′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNuno Mendes · Paris Saint Germain · 62′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDenis Zakaria · Monaco · 73′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 80′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNuno Mendes · Paris Saint Germain · 65′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 69′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAleksandr Golovin · Monaco · 90′ · 0.08 xG · on targetMaghnes Akliouche · Monaco · 17′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSimon Adingra · Monaco · 88′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLamine Camara · Monaco · 72′ · 0.13 xG · on targetAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint Germain · 6′ · 0.15 xG · on targetAleksandr Golovin · Monaco · 55′ · 0.16 xG · goalGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 79′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMaghnes Akliouche · Monaco · 27′ · 0.28 xG · goalDenis Zakaria · Monaco · 5′ · 0.36 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris Saint Germain: 19 shots, 5 on target, 1.09 xG. Monaco: 11 shots, 6 on target, 1.33 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Bradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 71′Maghnes Akliouche · Monaco · 27′Aleksandr Golovin · Monaco · 55′Folarin Balogun · Monaco · 73′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris Saint Germain 1.09 xG · Monaco 1.33 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Monaco's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.9 shots/match▲ShotsParis Saint Germain · Monaco12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint GermainMonacoBaseline
Shots17.9 shots/match12.1 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against8.6 shots/match13.3 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Monaco's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Monaco's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.72 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.72 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

68.6%▲PossessionParis Saint Germain · Monaco52.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint GermainMonacoBaseline
Possession68.6%52.7%49%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Paris Saint Germain
2Draws
1Monaco
Paris Saint Germain — Monaco · UEFA Champions League2–2
Paris Saint Germain — Monaco · UEFA Champions League2–2
Monaco — Paris Saint Germain · UEFA Champions League2–3
Monaco — Paris Saint Germain · UEFA Champions League2–3
Monaco — Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 11–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris Saint Germain favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Monaco in 0 · 4 too close

2.16 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 25/251.72 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 25/251.48 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
17.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 25/2512.1 shots/match
8.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 25/2513.3 shots/match
6.8 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 25/254.28 shots/match
2.92 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 25/254.36 shots/match
68.6%Possessionseason · 25/2552.7%
6.04 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/254.76 corners/match
2.96 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 25/254.4 corners/match
1 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 25/252.56 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2513 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
52%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/2524%
92%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2576%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris Saint Germain97.2
Monaco69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris Saint Germain97.2
Monaco65.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris Saint Germain95.4
Monaco34.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris Saint Germain75
Monaco30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain5.6
Monaco80.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain91.7
Monaco47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris Saint Germain73.6
Monaco57
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/52.2 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.4 shots/match▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match
7 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.6 shots/match
66.4%Possession5/550.2%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match
0.6 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.7 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.8 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.5 shots/match
6.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.7 shots/match
65.9%Possession10/1049.9%
5.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.4 corners/match
0.7 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 25 matches
2.16 goals/match▲Goals scored25/251.72 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed25/251.48 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.9 shots/match▲Shots25/2512.1 shots/match
6.8 shots/match▲Shots on target25/254.28 shots/match
68.6%Possession25/2552.7%
6.04 corners/matchCorners25/254.76 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards25/252.56 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls25/2513 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
2.58 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.33 goals/match
0.58 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.1 shots/match▲Shots12/1211.3 shots/match
7.25 shots/match▲Shots on target12/123.83 shots/match
68.8%Possession12/1251.4%
6.42 corners/matchCorners12/124.5 corners/match
1.08 cards/matchCards12/123.08 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls12/1213.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.99 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.07 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 6 Mar 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsParis Saint GermainMonaco
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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