UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 11 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeParc des PrincesFull-time recap

Paris Saint Germain

DLDWD

5–2Full-time recap

Chelsea

DWLWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Paris Saint Germain	Chelsea
Shots	9 shots/match	9 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	0.87 xG/match	1.53 xG/match▲
Possession	58%	42%
Corners	2 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	14 fouls/match	7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Paris Saint Germain: 9 shots, 8 on target, 0.88 xG. Chelsea: 9 shots, 4 on target, 1.47 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris Saint Germain 0.88 xG · Chelsea 1.47 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Chelsea's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.55 corners/match▲CornersParis Saint Germain · Chelsea5.78 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Paris Saint Germain	Chelsea	Baseline
Corners	6.55 corners/match	5.78 corners/match	4.53 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Chelsea have a visible away split

moderate

Chelsea's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	11 shots/match	13.4 shots/match	13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Chelsea show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

21.1 shots/match▲ShotsParis Saint Germain · Chelsea13.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Paris Saint Germain	Chelsea	Baseline
Shots	21.1 shots/match	13.4 shots/match	13.5 shots/match
Shots against	9.09 shots/match	8.44 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris Saint Germain favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Chelsea in 4 · 5 too close

2.82 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 11/92.11 goals/match

1.55 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 11/91.67 goals/match

2.1 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 11/91.67 xG/match

1.29 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 11/9▲1.12 xG/match

21.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 11/913.4 shots/match

9.09 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/9▲8.44 shots/match

7.73 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 11/95.22 shots/match

3.55 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/93.67 shots/match

68.5%Possessionseason · 11/955.7%

6.55 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/95.78 corners/match

2.64 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/92.56 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

8.27 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/912.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/9▲33%

91%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/9▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris Saint Germain98.8

Chelsea84.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris Saint Germain95.9

Chelsea61

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris Saint Germain76.1

Chelsea73.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris Saint Germain75

Chelsea29.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain3.6

Chelsea75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain94

Chelsea72.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris Saint Germain72

Chelsea63.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.8 goals/match

1.87 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.7 xG/match

22.6 shots/match▲Shots5/513.2 shots/match

7.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/55.4 shots/match

70.6%Possession5/554.8%

6.6 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 9 matches

2.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/92.11 goals/match

1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/91.67 goals/match

1.96 xG/match▲Expected goals10/91.67 xG/match

21 shots/match▲Shots10/913.4 shots/match

7.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/95.22 shots/match

68.7%Possession10/955.7%

6.6 corners/matchCorners10/95.78 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.6 fouls/matchFouls10/912.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 9 matches

2.82 goals/match▲Goals scored11/92.11 goals/match

1.55 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/91.67 goals/match

2.1 xG/match▲Expected goals11/91.67 xG/match

21.1 shots/match▲Shots11/913.4 shots/match

7.73 shots/match▲Shots on target11/95.22 shots/match

68.5%Possession11/955.7%

6.55 corners/matchCorners11/95.78 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.27 fouls/matchFouls11/912.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 5 matches

3 goals/match▲Goals scored6/51.8 goals/match

1.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/52.8 goals/match

2.14 xG/match▲Expected goals6/51.38 xG/match

19.5 shots/match▲Shots6/511 shots/match

8.17 shots/match▲Shots on target6/54.2 shots/match

67.2%Possession6/550.4%

5.83 corners/matchCorners6/53.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.67 fouls/matchFouls6/512.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/142 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples11 / 9home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 12 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4