UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 11 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeSantiago BernabéuFull-time recap

Real Madrid

LWLWW

3–0Full-time recap

Manchester City

WLWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Real Madrid	Manchester City
Shots	12 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	2.59 xG/match▲	0.56 xG/match
Possession	40%	60%
Corners	1 corners/match	10 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Real Madrid: 12 shots, 7 on target, 2.66 xG. Manchester City: 8 shots, 4 on target, 0.56 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 2.66 xG · Manchester City 0.56 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.67 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.67 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.82 corners/match▲CornersReal Madrid · Manchester City6 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Real Madrid	Manchester City	Baseline
Corners	5.82 corners/match	6 corners/match	4.53 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Real Madrid

0Draws

2Manchester City

10 Dec 2025Real Madrid — Manchester City · UEFA Champions League1–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Real Madrid favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Manchester City in 4 · 4 too close

2.45 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 11/91.67 goals/match

1.18 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 11/91.33 goals/match

2.16 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 11/91.66 xG/match

1.46 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 11/9▲1.13 xG/match

18 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 11/914.9 shots/match

14.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/9▲8.78 shots/match

6.91 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/96.67 shots/match

6.09 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/9▲3.22 shots/match

56.2%Possessionseason · 11/960%

5.82 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/96 corners/match

5.09 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/9▲3 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/910.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

36%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/933%

91%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 11/978%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Madrid86.9

Manchester City94

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Madrid87.6

Manchester City70.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Madrid43.4

Manchester City84.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Madrid79.8

Manchester City34.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid46.4

Manchester City29.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid76.2

Manchester City82.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Madrid74.4

Manchester City66.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match

2.05 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.55 xG/match

16.6 shots/match▲Shots5/513 shots/match

5.8 shots/matchShots on target5/55.8 shots/match

54%Possession5/555.8%

5.2 corners/matchCorners5/57 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 9 matches

2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/91.67 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/91.33 goals/match

2.01 xG/match▲Expected goals10/91.66 xG/match

17 shots/match▲Shots10/914.9 shots/match

6.1 shots/matchShots on target10/9▲6.67 shots/match

57.5%Possession10/960%

5.5 corners/matchCorners10/96 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFouls10/910.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 9 matches

2.45 goals/match▲Goals scored11/91.67 goals/match

1.18 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/91.33 goals/match

2.16 xG/match▲Expected goals11/91.66 xG/match

18 shots/match▲Shots11/914.9 shots/match

6.91 shots/matchShots on target11/96.67 shots/match

56.2%Possession11/960%

5.82 corners/matchCorners11/96 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls11/910.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 5 matches

2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored6/51.4 goals/match

0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/51.8 goals/match

2.58 xG/match▲Expected goals6/51.47 xG/match

20.5 shots/match▲Shots6/512.8 shots/match

7 shots/match▲Shots on target6/55.8 shots/match

51%Possession6/562.2%

6.67 corners/matchCorners6/55.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFouls6/513.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/142 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples11 / 9home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 12 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4