PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeOrange VélodromeFull-time recap
3–2Full-time recap

Lyon

WWWWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMarseilleLyon
Shots18 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Possession52%48%
Corners8 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Endrick · Lyon · 84′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 47′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 52′ · 0.02 xG · goalTimothy Weah · Marseille · 18′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedQuinten Timber · Marseille · 19′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 23′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 31′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille · 65′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Tagliafico · Lyon · 86′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille · 80′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRémi Himbert · Lyon · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 25′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRémi Himbert · Lyon · 76′ · 0.05 xG · goalRémi Himbert · Lyon · 82′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 59′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEndrick · Lyon · 72′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMason Greenwood · Marseille · 13′ · 0.07 xG · on targetNayef Aguerd · Marseille · 47′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedGeoffrey Kondogbia · Marseille · 24′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedEndrick · Lyon · 37′ · 0.08 xG · on targetMason Greenwood · Marseille · 54′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 9′ · 0.10 xG · on targetPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 13′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedRoman Yaremchuk · Lyon · 45′ · 0.12 xG · on targetCorentin Tolisso · Lyon · 3′ · 0.16 xG · goalTanner Tessmann · Lyon · 48′ · 0.23 xG · on targetRémi Himbert · Lyon · 63′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 81′ · 0.24 xG · goalEndrick · Lyon · 16′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 90′ · 0.83 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Marseille: 18 shots, 7 on target, 1.94 xG. Lyon: 12 shots, 6 on target, 1.44 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Igor Paixão · Marseille · 52′Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 81′Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 90′Corentin Tolisso · Lyon · 3′Rémi Himbert · Lyon · 76′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Marseille 1.94 xG · Lyon 1.44 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lyon's last-five shots average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lyon's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lyon's last-five shots average is below their season average.

7.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots7.6 shots/match11.9 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Marseille
0Draws
1Lyon
Lyon — Marseille · Ligue 11–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Marseille favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Lyon in 5 · 4 too close

2.13 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 24/241.63 goals/match
1.38 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 24/24▲1.08 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 24/2411.9 shots/match
10.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 24/2411.4 shots/match
5.71 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 24/244.71 shots/match
4.25 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 24/24▲3.67 shots/match
57.8%Possessionseason · 24/2454.5%
4.92 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/245.46 corners/match
3.58 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 24/244.75 corners/match
2.42 cards/matchCardsseason · 24/24▲2.21 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2413.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/24▲50%
75%Scoring frequencyseason · 24/24▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Marseille91.7
Lyon80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Marseille89.8
Lyon68.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Marseille60.2
Lyon76.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Marseille58.3
Lyon25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Marseille70.8
Lyon73.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Marseille58.3
Lyon75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Marseille73.6
Lyon75.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.4 goals/match
2.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots5/57.6 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53 shots/match
50.8%Possession5/548.6%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match
3.4 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
15.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.8 shots/match
5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.8 shots/match
54.6%Possession10/1053.3%
3.9 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

24 / 24 matches
2.13 goals/match▲Goals scored24/241.63 goals/match
1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed24/24▲1.08 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots24/2411.9 shots/match
5.71 shots/match▲Shots on target24/244.71 shots/match
57.8%Possession24/2454.5%
4.92 corners/matchCorners24/245.46 corners/match
2.42 cards/matchCards24/242.21 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls24/2413.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 13 matches
2.67 goals/match▲Goals scored12/131.54 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/131.46 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/match▲Shots12/1310.7 shots/match
6.25 shots/match▲Shots on target12/134.92 shots/match
58.6%Possession12/1352.8%
5.17 corners/matchCorners12/135.15 corners/match
2.17 cards/matchCards12/132.46 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls12/1313.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMarseilleLyon
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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