PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 8 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeAllianz RivieraFull-time recap

Nice

LDLWD
0–0Full-time recap

Monaco

LLLDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNiceMonaco
Shots13 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession44%56%
Corners8 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Ali Abdi · Nice · 16′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSofiane Diop · Nice · 41′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Clauss · Nice · 79′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Coulibaly · Monaco · 86′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJordan Teze · Monaco · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Sanson · Nice · 47′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGabin Bernardeau · Nice · 63′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKaïl Boudache · Nice · 82′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSofiane Diop · Nice · 72′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKaïl Boudache · Nice · 73′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDenis Zakaria · Monaco · 54′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSimon Adingra · Monaco · 55′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDenis Zakaria · Monaco · 67′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTom Louchet · Nice · 39′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedElye Wahi · Nice · 71′ · 0.05 xG · on targetFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 31′ · 0.06 xG · on targetSofiane Diop · Nice · 33′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDenis Zakaria · Monaco · 69′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDante · Nice · 10′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedElye Wahi · Nice · 81′ · 0.09 xG · on targetAleksandr Golovin · Monaco · 47′ · 0.11 xG · on targetFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 3′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nice: 13 shots, 4 on target, 0.49 xG. Monaco: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.61 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nice 0.49 xG · Monaco 0.61 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nice's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Monaco's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nice's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nice's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.29 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.29 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Monaco show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Monaco's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.8 shots/match▲ShotsNice · Monaco12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNiceMonacoBaseline
Shots11.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against15.4 shots/match13.1 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Nice
1Draws
0Monaco
Monaco — Nice · Ligue 12–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nice favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Monaco in 7 · 5 too close

1.29 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/21▲1.52 goals/match
1.81 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/21▲1.57 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/21▲12.4 shots/match
15.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/21▲13.1 shots/match
4.24 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/214.1 shots/match
5.43 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/21▲4.43 shots/match
48.2%Possessionseason · 21/2153.4%
5.1 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/214.76 corners/match
5.62 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/21▲4.33 corners/match
2.38 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 21/212.57 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2113.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/21▲24%
76%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2171%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nice41.7
Monaco69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nice48.1
Monaco59.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nice6.5
Monaco33.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nice52.8
Monaco30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nice70.8
Monaco80.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nice69.4
Monaco50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nice58.3
Monaco57
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510.8 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
50%Possession5/552.4%
5.6 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls5/515.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/matchShots10/1012.1 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.2 shots/match
51.5%Possession10/1050.7%
5.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.3 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1014 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
1.29 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲1.52 goals/match
1.81 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲1.57 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShots21/21▲12.4 shots/match
4.24 shots/matchShots on target21/214.1 shots/match
48.2%Possession21/2153.4%
5.1 corners/matchCorners21/214.76 corners/match
2.38 cards/matchCards21/212.57 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls21/2113.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 10 matches
1.27 goals/match▲Goals scored11/101 goals/match
1.27 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shots11/1011.5 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target11/103.5 shots/match
48.2%Possession11/1054.1%
5.45 corners/matchCorners11/104.9 corners/match
2.09 cards/matchCards11/103.3 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls11/1014.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.75 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNiceMonaco
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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