PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 2 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadium de ToulouseFull-time recap
0–3Full-time recap

Lens

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricToulouseLens
Shots8 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Possession32%68%
Corners2 corners/match8 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match16 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Florian Thauvin · Lens · 54′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIsmaelo Ganiou · Lens · 60′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 65′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 74′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · Lens · 22′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMalang Sarr · Lens · 7′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 36′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · Lens · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 15′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIsmaelo Ganiou · Lens · 90′ · 0.04 xG · goalRasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse · 1′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAndrija Bulatovic · Lens · 43′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMark McKenzie · Toulouse · 44′ · 0.06 xG · on targetSaud Abdulhamid · Lens · 4′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedRayan Fofana · Lens · 85′ · 0.11 xG · on targetIsmaelo Ganiou · Lens · 9′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 90′ · 0.14 xG · on targetWesley Saïd · Lens · 57′ · 0.15 xG · goalAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 85′ · 0.15 xG · goalEmersonn · Toulouse · 11′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 15′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · Lens · 70′ · 0.34 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Toulouse: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.67 xG. Lens: 16 shots, 7 on target, 1.61 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Wesley Saïd · Lens · 57′Adrien Thomasson · Lens · 85′Ismaelo Ganiou · Lens · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Toulouse 0.67 xG · Lens 1.61 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Toulouse's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Lens's last-five shots average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Toulouse have a visible home split

moderate

Toulouse's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.2 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.2 shots/match11.9 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Lens's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lens's last-five shots average is above their season average.

16.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots16.2 shots/match14.1 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Lens have recorded the higher season possession share.

40.4%▲PossessionToulouse · Lens49.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricToulouseLensBaseline
Possession40.4%49.3%49%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Toulouse favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Lens in 7 · 5 too close

1.41 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 17/17▲1.82 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 17/17▲0.76 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 17/17▲14.1 shots/match
11.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 17/1712.4 shots/match
3.76 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 17/17▲5.29 shots/match
3.29 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 17/173.65 shots/match
40.4%Possessionseason · 17/1749.3%
4.47 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/176.12 corners/match
5.47 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 17/17▲4.41 corners/match
2.47 cards/matchCardsseason · 17/17▲2.18 cards/match
14.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1713.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
35%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/1735%
71%Scoring frequencyseason · 17/17▲76%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Toulouse2.8
Lens52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Toulouse45.4
Lens82.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Toulouse71.3
Lens71.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Toulouse97.2
Lens91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Toulouse86.2
Lens58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Toulouse41.7
Lens80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Toulouse52.8
Lens79.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.2 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match
34.4%Possession5/558%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
15.2 fouls/matchFouls5/514 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.1 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.9 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.7 shots/match
40.5%Possession10/1052.6%
4.8 corners/matchCorners10/106.4 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
14.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 17 matches
1.41 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲1.82 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲0.76 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShots17/17▲14.1 shots/match
3.76 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲5.29 shots/match
40.4%Possession17/1749.3%
4.47 corners/matchCorners17/176.12 corners/match
2.47 cards/matchCards17/172.18 cards/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls17/1713.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
1.56 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.67 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/match▲Shots9/913.3 shots/match
4.44 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲5 shots/match
40.9%Possession9/949.3%
4.78 corners/matchCorners9/95.11 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards9/92.56 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls9/914.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

20 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/119.2 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 2 Jan 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsToulouseLens
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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