PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 4 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeParc des PrincesFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricParis Saint GermainParis FC
Shots20 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession70%30%
Corners7 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match4 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Alimami Gory · Paris FC · 4′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMathieu Cafaro · Paris FC · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint Germain · 3′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNuno Mendes · Paris Saint Germain · 16′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 23′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFabián Ruiz · Paris Saint Germain · 36′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 45′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSenny Mayulu · Paris Saint Germain · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 40′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSenny Mayulu · Paris Saint Germain · 41′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoão Neves · Paris Saint Germain · 43′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNuno Mendes · Paris Saint Germain · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 53′ · 0.03 xG · goalNuno Mendes · Paris Saint Germain · 29′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 43′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAdama Camara · Paris FC · 63′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedWillem Geubbels · Paris FC · 77′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNuno Mendes · Paris Saint Germain · 67′ · 0.05 xG · on targetSenny Mayulu · Paris Saint Germain · 31′ · 0.06 xG · on targetWillian Pacho · Paris Saint Germain · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedVincent Marchetti · Paris FC · 77′ · 0.11 xG · on targetFabián Ruiz · Paris Saint Germain · 45′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedWillian Pacho · Paris Saint Germain · 67′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 45′ · 0.61 xG · goalWillem Geubbels · Paris FC · 51′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris Saint Germain: 20 shots, 6 on target, 1.72 xG. Paris FC: 6 shots, 3 on target, 1.03 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Désiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 45′Ousmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 53′Willem Geubbels · Paris FC · 51′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris Saint Germain 1.72 xG · Paris FC 1.03 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Paris FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Paris FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.29 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.29 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.8 shots/match▲ShotsParis Saint Germain · Paris FC12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint GermainParis FCBaseline
Shots17.8 shots/match12.1 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against8.53 shots/match11.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Paris Saint Germain have a visible home split

moderate

Paris Saint Germain's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

21.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season17.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots21.3 shots/match17.8 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris Saint Germain favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Paris FC in 0 · 4 too close

2.18 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 17/171.29 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 17/171.82 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
17.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 17/1712.1 shots/match
8.53 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 17/1711.8 shots/match
6.82 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 17/173.59 shots/match
2.94 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 17/174.12 shots/match
69.7%Possessionseason · 17/1753.9%
6.29 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/174.53 corners/match
3 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 17/175.24 corners/match
1.18 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 17/172.06 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1711.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
47%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/1718%
88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 17/1776%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris Saint Germain97.2
Paris FC75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris Saint Germain97.2
Paris FC36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris Saint Germain95.4
Paris FC38
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris Saint Germain69.4
Paris FC19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain2.8
Paris FC30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint Germain97.2
Paris FC41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris Saint Germain73.6
Paris FC31.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.4 shots/match▲Shots5/59 shots/match
7.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match
63.4%Possession5/550.8%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.3 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.8 shots/match
7.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.6 shots/match
69%Possession10/1052.8%
6.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.3 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards10/102.7 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 17 matches
2.18 goals/match▲Goals scored17/171.29 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.82 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.8 shots/match▲Shots17/1712.1 shots/match
6.82 shots/match▲Shots on target17/173.59 shots/match
69.7%Possession17/1753.9%
6.29 corners/matchCorners17/174.53 corners/match
1.18 cards/matchCards17/172.06 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls17/1711.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 9 matches
2.38 goals/match▲Goals scored8/91.11 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/91.78 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
21.3 shots/match▲Shots8/99.78 shots/match
7.63 shots/match▲Shots on target8/93.33 shots/match
70.9%Possession8/950.3%
7.13 corners/matchCorners8/93 corners/match
1.25 cards/matchCards8/91.56 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls8/910.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

22.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/122 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 Jan 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsParis Saint GermainParis FC
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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