PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 4 Jan 2026, 16:15 UTCFull timeStade Francis-Le BléFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

Auxerre

LDDWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricStade Brestois 29Auxerre
Shots11 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession50%50%
Corners7 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Elisha Owusu · Auxerre · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLuc Zogbé · Stade Brestois 29 · 11′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKévin Danois · Auxerre · 19′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLuc Zogbé · Stade Brestois 29 · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRemy Labeau Lascary · Stade Brestois 29 · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Osman · Auxerre · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Osman · Auxerre · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLamine Sy · Auxerre · 55′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPathé Mboup · Stade Brestois 29 · 71′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLucas Tousart · Stade Brestois 29 · 82′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Senaya · Auxerre · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoris Chotard · Stade Brestois 29 · 79′ · 0.06 xG · goalKévin Danois · Auxerre · 80′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 47′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLasso Coulibaly · Auxerre · 80′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedRemy Labeau Lascary · Stade Brestois 29 · 34′ · 0.14 xG · on targetSékou Mara · Auxerre · 65′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 62′ · 0.22 xG · on targetIbrahim Osman · Auxerre · 35′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedDaouda Guindo · Stade Brestois 29 · 90′ · 0.53 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 33′ · 0.74 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Stade Brestois 29: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.91 xG. Auxerre: 10 shots, 1 on target, 0.74 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Ludovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 33′Joris Chotard · Stade Brestois 29 · 79′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Stade Brestois 29 1.91 xG · Auxerre 0.74 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Auxerre's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Stade Brestois 29's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Auxerre's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Auxerre's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.82 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match0.82 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Stade Brestois 29 have a visible home split

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.8 shots/match12.1 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13.6 fouls/match▲FoulsStade Brestois 29 · Auxerre13.7 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricStade Brestois 29AuxerreBaseline
Fouls13.6 fouls/match13.7 fouls/match12.2 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Stade Brestois 29 favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Auxerre in 2 · 5 too close

1.35 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 17/170.82 goals/match
1.59 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 17/171.59 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 17/1711.2 shots/match
12.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 17/17▲11.4 shots/match
4.06 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 17/173.76 shots/match
4.29 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 17/174.59 shots/match
44.2%Possessionseason · 17/1744.4%
4.53 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/175.12 corners/match
5.18 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 17/17▲4.71 corners/match
1.94 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 17/172.65 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1713.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/1718%
65%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 17/1753%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Stade Brestois 2925
Auxerre30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Stade Brestois 2950.9
Auxerre18.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Stade Brestois 2939.8
Auxerre42.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Stade Brestois 2980.6
Auxerre58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2952.8
Auxerre86.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2941.7
Auxerre63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Stade Brestois 2955.6
Auxerre49.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/matchShots5/513 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.8 shots/match
45.6%Possession5/541.8%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/56.2 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
16 fouls/matchFouls5/513.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.5 shots/matchShots10/10▲11.3 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/104.1 shots/match
44.3%Possession10/1044.4%
4.1 corners/matchCorners10/105.5 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/102.5 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 17 matches
1.35 goals/match▲Goals scored17/170.82 goals/match
1.59 goals/matchGoals allowed17/171.59 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.1 shots/match▲Shots17/1711.2 shots/match
4.06 shots/match▲Shots on target17/173.76 shots/match
44.2%Possession17/1744.4%
4.53 corners/matchCorners17/175.12 corners/match
1.94 cards/matchCards17/172.65 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls17/1713.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 8 matches
1.56 goals/match▲Goals scored9/80.5 goals/match
1.22 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/82 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.8 shots/match▲Shots9/810.5 shots/match
4.78 shots/match▲Shots on target9/83.63 shots/match
44.7%Possession9/845.8%
5.67 corners/matchCorners9/84.38 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards9/82.13 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls9/813.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

22 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/121 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 Jan 2026, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsStade Brestois 29Auxerre
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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