PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 4 Jan 2026, 16:15 UTCFull timeStade du MoustoirFull-time recap

Lorient

DDWWD
1–1Full-time recap

Metz

WLLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLorientMetz
Shots16 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession43%57%
Corners4 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Jean-Victor Makengo · Lorient · 19′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBoubacar Traoré · Metz · 26′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBoubacar Traoré · Metz · 28′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMaxime Colin · Metz · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGeorgiy Tsitaishvili · Metz · 69′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJoel Mugisha Mvuka · Lorient · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLaurent Abergel · Lorient · 14′ · 0.03 xG · on targetSadibou Sané · Metz · 29′ · 0.03 xG · goalSadibou Sané · Metz · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPablo Pagis · Lorient · 13′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGeorgiy Tsitaishvili · Metz · 32′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Bamba · Lorient · 75′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMohamed Bamba · Lorient · 78′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPablo Pagis · Lorient · 87′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoel Mugisha Mvuka · Lorient · 78′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPablo Pagis · Lorient · 40′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSambou Soumano · Lorient · 22′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAhmadou Bamba Dieng · Lorient · 90′ · 0.08 xG · on targetSambou Soumano · Lorient · 59′ · 0.10 xG · on targetJean-Victor Makengo · Lorient · 59′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAhmadou Bamba Dieng · Lorient · 73′ · 0.15 xG · goalGauthier Hein · Metz · 34′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedPablo Pagis · Lorient · 22′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blockedPablo Pagis · Lorient · 22′ · 0.39 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lorient: 16 shots, 5 on target, 1.58 xG. Metz: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.41 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Ahmadou Bamba Dieng · Lorient · 73′Sadibou Sané · Metz · 29′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lorient 1.58 xG · Metz 0.41 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Metz's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Metz show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Metz's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.2 shots/match▲ShotsLorient · Metz8.88 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLorientMetzBaseline
Shots12.2 shots/match8.88 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against9.65 shots/match14.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lorient favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Metz in 1 · 7 too close

1.18 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 17/171.06 goals/match
1.71 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 17/172.24 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 17/178.88 shots/match
9.65 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 17/1714.8 shots/match
3.94 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 17/173.12 shots/match
3.76 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 17/175.94 shots/match
43.4%Possessionseason · 17/1749.2%
3.18 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/174.12 corners/match
5.12 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 17/175.18 corners/match
2.06 cards/matchCardsseason · 17/17▲1.71 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1710.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/1718%
65%Scoring frequencyseason · 17/1765%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lorient19.4
Metz47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lorient44.4
Metz11.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lorient62
Metz6.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lorient86.1
Metz2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lorient25
Metz13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lorient8.3
Metz25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lorient29.1
Metz12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.2 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/match▲Shots5/59 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
41.4%Possession5/551%
2.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.3 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/match▲Shots10/109.6 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/104 shots/match
43.4%Possession10/1050%
3.5 corners/matchCorners10/104.1 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
8.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 17 matches
1.18 goals/match▲Goals scored17/171.06 goals/match
1.71 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/172.24 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/match▲Shots17/178.88 shots/match
3.94 shots/match▲Shots on target17/173.12 shots/match
43.4%Possession17/1749.2%
3.18 corners/matchCorners17/174.12 corners/match
2.06 cards/matchCards17/171.71 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls17/1710.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.22 goals/match
1.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/93.11 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shots9/98.78 shots/match
5.11 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.11 shots/match
43%Possession9/951.7%
3 corners/matchCorners9/94.11 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards9/91.89 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls9/99.78 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/121.9 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 Jan 2026, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLorientMetz
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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