PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 16:00 UTCFull timeRoazhon ParkFull-time recap

Rennes

WWWWL
3–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRennesStade Brestois 29
Shots9 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Possession61%39%
Corners5 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match22 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Daouda Guindo · Stade Brestois 29 · 2′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMama Baldé · Stade Brestois 29 · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPathé Mboup · Stade Brestois 29 · 76′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRemy Labeau Lascary · Stade Brestois 29 · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMama Baldé · Stade Brestois 29 · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMama Baldé · Stade Brestois 29 · 1′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMama Baldé · Stade Brestois 29 · 28′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 71′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 · 70′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSoumaila Coulibaly · Stade Brestois 29 · 82′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRemy Labeau Lascary · Stade Brestois 29 · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 37′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Rouault · Rennes · 59′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Rennes · 59′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Rennes · 28′ · 0.11 xG · on targetPathé Mboup · Stade Brestois 29 · 3′ · 0.14 xG · on targetKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 4′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedSeko Fofana · Rennes · 90′ · 0.14 xG · on targetMama Baldé · Stade Brestois 29 · 13′ · 0.17 xG · goalMohamed Kader Meite · Rennes · 87′ · 0.25 xG · goalMousa Tamari · Rennes · 25′ · 0.48 xG · goalEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 24′ · 0.91 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rennes: 9 shots, 5 on target, 2.17 xG. Stade Brestois 29: 14 shots, 7 on target, 0.83 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Esteban Lepaul · Rennes · 24′Mousa Tamari · Rennes · 25′Mohamed Kader Meite · Rennes · 87′Mama Baldé · Stade Brestois 29 · 13′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rennes 2.17 xG · Stade Brestois 29 0.83 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rennes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Rennes's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Rennes have a visible home split

moderate

Rennes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Rennes's recent record differs from the season

weak

Rennes's last-five shots average is below their season average.

10.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots10.2 shots/match12.4 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Stade Brestois 29 show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Stade Brestois 29's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.4 shots/match▲ShotsRennes · Stade Brestois 2912.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRennesStade Brestois 29Baseline
Shots12.4 shots/match12.2 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against14.8 shots/match12.3 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Rennes favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Stade Brestois 29 in 2 · 8 too close

1.69 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/161.31 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/161.69 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/1612.2 shots/match
14.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/16▲12.3 shots/match
4.56 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/164.06 shots/match
4.38 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/164.5 shots/match
50.4%Possessionseason · 16/1643.9%
5.31 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/164.38 corners/match
5.06 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/165.13 corners/match
2.13 cards/matchCardsseason · 16/16▲1.88 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1613.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1625%
81%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1663%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rennes58.3
Stade Brestois 2925
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rennes65.7
Stade Brestois 2949.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rennes33.3
Stade Brestois 2936.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rennes52.8
Stade Brestois 2986.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rennes27.8
Stade Brestois 2952.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rennes69.4
Stade Brestois 2936.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rennes54.1
Stade Brestois 2954.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.4 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.8 shots/match
48.2%Possession5/542.8%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls5/514.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.1 shots/match
4.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104 shots/match
49.4%Possession10/1044.4%
5.8 corners/matchCorners10/104.6 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches
1.69 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.31 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.69 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots16/1612.2 shots/match
4.56 shots/match▲Shots on target16/164.06 shots/match
50.4%Possession16/1643.9%
5.31 corners/matchCorners16/164.38 corners/match
2.13 cards/matchCards16/161.88 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls16/1613.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
2.25 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.13 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/82 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.8 shots/match▲Shots8/89.13 shots/match
5.75 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.25 shots/match
50.6%Possession8/843.8%
5.25 corners/matchCorners8/83.25 corners/match
2.13 cards/matchCards8/82.25 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls8/813.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.83 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.92 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRennesStade Brestois 29
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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