PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 5 Dec 2025, 18:00 UTCFull timeStade Francis-Le BléFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

Monaco

WLLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricStade Brestois 29Monaco
Shots12 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession40%60%
Corners2 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls17 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲4 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Hugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois 29 · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedHugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois 29 · 71′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDaouda Guindo · Stade Brestois 29 · 5′ · 0.02 xG · on targetTakumi Minamino · Monaco · 62′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJordan Teze · Monaco · 66′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRemy Labeau Lascary · Stade Brestois 29 · 14′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois 29 · 36′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMika Biereth · Monaco · 38′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMama Baldé · Stade Brestois 29 · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMika Biereth · Monaco · 14′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDaouda Guindo · Stade Brestois 29 · 54′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMaghnes Akliouche · Monaco · 75′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 28′ · 0.05 xG · on targetLamine Camara · Monaco · 76′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois 29 · 35′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 38′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAleksandr Golovin · Monaco · 34′ · 0.08 xG · on targetTakumi Minamino · Monaco · 39′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedParis Brunner · Monaco · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMika Biereth · Monaco · 43′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 28′ · 0.57 xG · goalRemy Labeau Lascary · Stade Brestois 29 · 20′ · 0.61 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Stade Brestois 29: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.53 xG. Monaco: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.60 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Kamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 28′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Stade Brestois 29 1.53 xG · Monaco 0.60 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Monaco's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Stade Brestois 29's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Monaco's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Monaco's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.73 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.73 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Stade Brestois 29 have a visible home split

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.3 shots/match12.1 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Monaco have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.2%▲PossessionStade Brestois 29 · Monaco54.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricStade Brestois 29MonacoBaseline
Possession44.2%54.5%47.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Stade Brestois 29 favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Monaco in 3 · 7 too close

1.33 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/15▲1.73 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 15/151.73 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 15/1512.5 shots/match
12.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 15/1513.5 shots/match
3.87 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 15/154 shots/match
4.47 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 15/154.27 shots/match
44.2%Possessionseason · 15/1554.5%
4.2 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/154.33 corners/match
5.13 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 15/15▲4.53 corners/match
1.8 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 15/152.87 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1513.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
27%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/1513%
60%Scoring frequencyseason · 15/15▲80%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Stade Brestois 2925
Monaco69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Stade Brestois 2941.7
Monaco61.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Stade Brestois 2934.3
Monaco30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Stade Brestois 2986.1
Monaco25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2944.5
Monaco84.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2925
Monaco41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Stade Brestois 2944.5
Monaco55.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.8 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
45%Possession5/551.6%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/53 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.3 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.8 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.3 shots/match
44.8%Possession10/1054.1%
4.3 corners/matchCorners10/103.9 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/103.2 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1013 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲1.73 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.73 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.1 shots/matchShots15/1512.5 shots/match
3.87 shots/matchShots on target15/154 shots/match
44.2%Possession15/1554.5%
4.2 corners/matchCorners15/154.33 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards15/152.87 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls15/1513.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 7 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored8/71.43 goals/match
1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/72 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.3 shots/match▲Shots8/711 shots/match
4.88 shots/match▲Shots on target8/73.43 shots/match
44%Possession8/755.7%
5.5 corners/matchCorners8/74.29 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards8/73.86 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls8/714.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.17 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.08 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 5 Dec 2025, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsStade Brestois 29Monaco
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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