PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Lille 1–0 Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 1

Lille

LWLWW
1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lille won 1–0.

Shots
56
Shots on target
22
Expected goals
0.350.53
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lille beat Marseille 1–0. Recorded in this match (Lille – Marseille): shots 5–6, shots on target 2–2, expected goals 0.35–0.53, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Lille's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lille's last-five shots average is below their season average.

10.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season15.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots10.2 shots/match15.1 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.4 corners/match ●CornersLille · Marseille5.6 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricLilleMarseilleBaseline
Corners6.4 corners/match5.6 corners/match4.75 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots5 shots6 shotsLille 5 shots, Olympique de Marseille 6 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots2 shotsLille 2 shots, Olympique de Marseille 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.35 xG0.53 xGLille 0.35 xG, Olympique de Marseille 0.53 xG
  • Possession42%58%Lille 42%, Olympique de Marseille 58%
  • Corners2 corners5 cornersLille 2 corners, Olympique de Marseille 5 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls11 foulsLille 9 fouls, Olympique de Marseille 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardLille 1 card, Olympique de Marseille 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Emerson Palmieri · Marseille · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 46′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNabil Bentaleb · Lille · 75′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGeoffrey Kondogbia · Marseille · 78′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRomain Perraud · Lille · 13′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOsame Sahraoui · Lille · 64′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDarryl Bakola · Marseille · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEthan Mbappé · Lille · 10′ · 0.11 xG · goalNgal'ayel Mukau · Lille · 90′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 76′ · 0.41 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lille: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.33 xG. Marseille: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.55 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Ethan Mbappé · Lille · 10′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lille 0.33 xG · Marseille 0.55 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Lille
3Draws
0Olympique de Marseille
Lille — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 11–1
Olympique de Marseille — Lille · Ligue 11–1
Lille — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 13–1
Olympique de Marseille — Lille · Ligue 10–0
Lille — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 12–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lille favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Olympique de Marseille in 6 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lille15 matchesOlympique de Marseille15 matches
1.93 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲ 2.33 goals/match
1.13 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲ 1 goal/match
1.94 xG/matchExpected goals15/151.91 xG/match
15.1 shots/match ▲Shots15/1514.1 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲ 5.73 shots/match
56.2%Possession15/15● 60%
6.4 corners/match ●Corners15/155.6 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards15/152.27 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls15/1511.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLilleOlympique de Marseille
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2025/26
Head-to-headLille — Olympique de Marseille
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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