PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 5 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeStade Pierre-MauroyFull-time recap

Lille

LWLWW
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLilleMarseille
Shots5 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match2 shots/match
Possession42%58%
Corners2 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Emerson Palmieri · Marseille · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 46′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNabil Bentaleb · Lille · 75′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGeoffrey Kondogbia · Marseille · 78′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRomain Perraud · Lille · 13′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOsame Sahraoui · Lille · 64′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDarryl Bakola · Marseille · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEthan Mbappé · Lille · 10′ · 0.11 xG · goalNgal'ayel Mukau · Lille · 90′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 76′ · 0.41 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lille: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.33 xG. Marseille: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.55 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Ethan Mbappé · Lille · 10′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lille 0.33 xG · Marseille 0.55 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lille's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lille's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lille's last-five shots average is below their season average.

10.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season15.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots10.2 shots/match15.1 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.4 corners/match▲CornersLille · Marseille5.6 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricLilleMarseilleBaseline
Corners6.4 corners/match5.6 corners/match4.75 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lille favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Marseille in 6 · 6 too close

1.93 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/15▲2.33 goals/match
1.13 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/15▲1 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
15.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 15/1514.1 shots/match
9.27 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 15/158.93 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 15/15▲5.67 shots/match
3.4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 15/153.73 shots/match
56.2%Possessionseason · 15/1560%
6.4 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/155.6 corners/match
4 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 15/15▲3.33 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCardsseason · 15/15▲2.27 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1511.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/1533%
73%Scoring frequencyseason · 15/15▲80%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lille86.1
Marseille91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lille88
Marseille91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lille80.6
Marseille82.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lille75
Marseille41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lille70.8
Marseille44.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lille91.7
Marseille75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lille84
Marseille73.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/50.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.8 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.4 shots/match
52.6%Possession5/559.4%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.5 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.1 shots/matchShots10/1014.7 shots/match
4.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.5 shots/match
54.8%Possession10/1062.1%
6.1 corners/matchCorners10/104.8 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches
1.93 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲2.33 goals/match
1.13 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.1 shots/match▲Shots15/1514.1 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲5.67 shots/match
56.2%Possession15/1560%
6.4 corners/matchCorners15/155.6 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards15/152.27 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls15/1511.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.5 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/80.88 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.1 shots/match▲Shots8/813.5 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target8/85 shots/match
52.8%Possession8/857.6%
6 corners/matchCorners8/85.75 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards8/82.63 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls8/811 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.16 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLilleMarseille
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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