PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 30 Nov 2025, 16:15 UTCFull timeStade OcéaneFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

Lille

WLWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLe HavreLille
Shots14 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession43%57%
Corners6 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Fodé Doucouré · Le Havre · 54′ · 0.02 xG · on targetFodé Doucouré · Le Havre · 61′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAyumu Seko · Le Havre · 18′ · 0.03 xG · on targetOsame Sahraoui · Lille · 22′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 33′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedReda Khadra · Le Havre · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetGautier Lloris · Le Havre · 31′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedOsame Sahraoui · Lille · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedThomas Meunier · Lille · 80′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedThomas Meunier · Lille · 22′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedYassine Kechta · Le Havre · 69′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGautier Lloris · Le Havre · 61′ · 0.06 xG · on targetLoic Négo · Le Havre · 81′ · 0.08 xG · on targetHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 86′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAïssa Mandi · Lille · 34′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSimon Ebonog · Le Havre · 60′ · 0.10 xG · on targetFodé Doucouré · Le Havre · 30′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedYanis Zouaoui · Le Havre · 54′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 45′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedGodson Kyeremeh · Le Havre · 9′ · 0.32 xG · on targetEthan Mbappé · Lille · 77′ · 0.33 xG · on targetHamza Igamane · Lille · 88′ · 0.83 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Le Havre: 14 shots, 7 on target, 1.17 xG. Lille: 8 shots, 2 on target, 1.50 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Hamza Igamane · Lille · 88′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Le Havre 1.17 xG · Lille 1.50 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Le Havre's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Le Havre's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Le Havre's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Le Havre's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.93 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.93 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Le Havre have a visible home split

moderate

Le Havre's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.9 shots/match11.7 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Le Havre show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Le Havre's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.7 shots/match▲ShotsLe Havre · Lille15.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLe HavreLilleBaseline
Shots11.7 shots/match15.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against11.5 shots/match9.5 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Le Havre favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Lille in 8 · 5 too close

0.93 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 14/14▲2 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 14/14▲1.21 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/14▲15.8 shots/match
11.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 14/14▲9.5 shots/match
3.79 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/14▲5.21 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 14/14▲3.5 shots/match
45.9%Possessionseason · 14/1457.2%
4.29 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/146.71 corners/match
4.36 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 14/14▲3.93 corners/match
1.93 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 14/142.5 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1413.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/1429%
64%Scoring frequencyseason · 14/14▲71%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Le Havre36.1
Lille86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Le Havre26.8
Lille89.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Le Havre50
Lille79.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Le Havre63.9
Lille86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Le Havre62.5
Lille82
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Le Havre30.6
Lille97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Le Havre46.5
Lille87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots5/513.4 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.8 shots/match
48.6%Possession5/557.8%
5 corners/matchCorners5/57.4 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.5 shots/matchShots10/10▲15.3 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5 shots/match
46.8%Possession10/1056.8%
4.6 corners/matchCorners10/106.9 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/102.8 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
0.93 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲2 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲1.21 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShots14/14▲15.8 shots/match
3.79 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲5.21 shots/match
45.9%Possession14/1457.2%
4.29 corners/matchCorners14/146.71 corners/match
1.93 cards/matchCards14/142.5 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFouls14/1413.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
1.29 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.86 goals/match
1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.57 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.9 shots/matchShots7/7▲15 shots/match
4.57 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲5 shots/match
50.7%Possession7/760.1%
5 corners/matchCorners7/76.86 corners/match
1.86 cards/matchCards7/73.14 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFouls7/714.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.84 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.85 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 30 Nov 2025, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLe HavreLille
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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