PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 7 Dec 2025, 16:15 UTCFull timeStade OcéaneFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLe HavreParis FC
Shots13 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match2 shots/match
Possession44%56%
Corners7 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Younes Namli · Le Havre · 88′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlly Samatta · Le Havre · 6′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTuomas Ollila · Paris FC · 11′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 12′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMoses Simon · Paris FC · 40′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMoses Simon · Paris FC · 5′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTuomas Ollila · Paris FC · 39′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 9′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRassoul Ndiaye · Le Havre · 16′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 24′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 56′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMoses Simon · Paris FC · 56′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Ikoné · Paris FC · 71′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRassoul Ndiaye · Le Havre · 28′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedYassine Kechta · Le Havre · 58′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNouha Dicko · Paris FC · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC · 32′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 64′ · 0.09 xG · on targetAdama Camara · Paris FC · 56′ · 0.12 xG · on targetAlly Samatta · Le Havre · 47′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedAlly Samatta · Le Havre · 63′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedAlimami Gory · Paris FC · 81′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blockedYassine Kechta · Le Havre · 54′ · 0.36 xG · off target or blockedAlimami Gory · Paris FC · 87′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 79′ · 0.82 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Le Havre: 13 shots, 2 on target, 1.90 xG. Paris FC: 13 shots, 2 on target, 1.24 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Le Havre 1.90 xG · Paris FC 1.24 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Le Havre's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Paris FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Le Havre's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Le Havre's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.87 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.87 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris FC have a visible away split

moderate

Paris FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.3 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Paris FC have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.8%▲PossessionLe Havre · Paris FC54.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLe HavreParis FCBaseline
Possession45.8%54.7%48.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Le Havre favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Paris FC in 3 · 7 too close

0.87 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/15▲1.4 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 15/151.73 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 15/15▲12.7 shots/match
11.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 15/1511.5 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 15/153.73 shots/match
3.87 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 15/154 shots/match
45.8%Possessionseason · 15/1554.7%
4.47 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/154.6 corners/match
4.2 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 15/155.2 corners/match
1.8 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 15/152.13 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1511.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/1520%
60%Scoring frequencyseason · 15/15▲80%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Le Havre36.1
Paris FC75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Le Havre24.1
Paris FC52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Le Havre54.6
Paris FC43.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Le Havre69.4
Paris FC30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Le Havre56.9
Paris FC36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Le Havre41.7
Paris FC47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Le Havre46.5
Paris FC46.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲0.8 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/match▲Shots5/511.8 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match
48.2%Possession5/551.2%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.2 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.5 shots/matchShots10/1011.6 shots/match
3.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.6 shots/match
45.2%Possession10/1054.8%
4.7 corners/matchCorners10/104.1 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/102.5 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches
0.87 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲1.4 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.73 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShots15/15▲12.7 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target15/153.73 shots/match
45.8%Possession15/1554.7%
4.47 corners/matchCorners15/154.6 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards15/152.13 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls15/1511.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
1.13 goals/matchGoals scored8/81.13 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots8/810.3 shots/match
4.25 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.38 shots/match
49.9%Possession8/852.9%
5.25 corners/matchCorners8/83.25 corners/match
1.63 cards/matchCards8/81.75 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls8/811.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.93 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 7 Dec 2025, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLe HavreParis FC
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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