PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Stade Jean Bouin

Paris FC 0–3 Toulouse · Ligue 1

0–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Toulouse won 0–3.

Shots
97
Shots on target
24
Expected goals
0.462.54
Possession
65%35%

Full time

What the match recorded

Toulouse beat Paris FC 3–0. Recorded in this match (Paris FC – Toulouse): shots 9–7, shots on target 2–4, expected goals 0.46–2.54, possession 65%–35%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Paris FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Paris FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.31 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.31 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Toulouse have a visible away split

moderate

Toulouse's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.38 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.38 shots/match12.2 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Paris FC have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.4% ●PossessionParis FC · Toulouse40.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricParis FCToulouseBaseline
Possession55.4%40.9%48.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots7 shotsParis FC 9 shots, Toulouse 7 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots4 shotsParis FC 2 shots, Toulouse 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.46 xG2.54 xGParis FC 0.46 xG, Toulouse 2.54 xG
  • Possession65%35%Paris FC 65%, Toulouse 35%
  • Corners7 corners4 cornersParis FC 7 corners, Toulouse 4 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls14 foulsParis FC 12 fouls, Toulouse 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards1 cardParis FC 3 cards, Toulouse 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Vincent Marchetti · Paris FC · 5′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 1′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAdama Camara · Paris FC · 26′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Ikoné · Paris FC · 40′ · 0.02 xG · on targetIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVincent Marchetti · Paris FC · 62′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNoah Edjouma · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdama Camara · Paris FC · 44′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 13′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAdama Camara · Paris FC · 53′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedEmersonn · Toulouse · 15′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 37′ · 0.18 xG · goalJonathan Ikoné · Paris FC · 48′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 69′ · 0.59 xG · goalSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 29′ · 0.72 xG · goalDjibril Sidibé · Toulouse · 19′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris FC: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.47 xG. Toulouse: 7 shots, 4 on target, 2.57 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Santiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 29′Yann Gboho · Toulouse · 37′Yann Gboho · Toulouse · 69′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris FC 0.47 xG · Toulouse 2.57 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Paris FC favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Toulouse in 7 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Paris FC16 matchesToulouse16 matches
1.31 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲ 1.5 goals/match
1.81 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲ 1.19 goals/match
1.34 xG/matchExpected goals16/16▲ 1.47 xG/match
12.4 shots/matchShots16/1612.2 shots/match
3.63 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲ 3.94 shots/match
55.4% ●Possession16/1640.9%
4.75 corners/match ●Corners16/164.63 corners/match
2.19 cards/matchCards16/162.44 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls16/1614.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 00:05 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsParis FCToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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