PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 20:05 UTCFull timeStade Jean BouinFull-time recap
0–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricParis FCToulouse
Shots9 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession65%35%
Corners7 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Vincent Marchetti · Paris FC · 5′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 1′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAdama Camara · Paris FC · 26′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Ikoné · Paris FC · 40′ · 0.02 xG · on targetIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVincent Marchetti · Paris FC · 62′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNoah Edjouma · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdama Camara · Paris FC · 44′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 13′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAdama Camara · Paris FC · 53′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedEmersonn · Toulouse · 15′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 37′ · 0.18 xG · goalJonathan Ikoné · Paris FC · 48′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 69′ · 0.59 xG · goalSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 29′ · 0.72 xG · goalDjibril Sidibé · Toulouse · 19′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris FC: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.47 xG. Toulouse: 7 shots, 4 on target, 2.57 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Santiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 29′Yann Gboho · Toulouse · 37′Yann Gboho · Toulouse · 69′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris FC 0.47 xG · Toulouse 2.57 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Toulouse's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Paris FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Paris FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.31 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.31 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Toulouse have a visible away split

moderate

Toulouse's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.38 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.38 shots/match12.2 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Paris FC have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.4%▲PossessionParis FC · Toulouse40.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricParis FCToulouseBaseline
Possession55.4%40.9%48.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris FC favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Toulouse in 5 · 8 too close

1.31 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/16▲1.5 goals/match
1.81 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/16▲1.19 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/1612.2 shots/match
11.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/1611.1 shots/match
3.63 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/16▲3.88 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲3.06 shots/match
55.4%Possessionseason · 16/1640.9%
4.75 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/164.63 corners/match
5.13 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/165.31 corners/match
2.19 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 16/162.44 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1614.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/16▲38%
75%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1675%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris FC75
Toulouse2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris FC44.4
Toulouse48.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris FC42.6
Toulouse75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris FC25
Toulouse97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris FC33.4
Toulouse88.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris FC58.3
Toulouse47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris FC43
Toulouse56.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.8 shots/match
55.2%Possession5/538%
5 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/515.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.3 shots/match
2.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.7 shots/match
55.7%Possession10/1040.4%
4.3 corners/matchCorners10/105.1 corners/match
2.7 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches
1.31 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.5 goals/match
1.81 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲1.19 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots16/1612.2 shots/match
3.63 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲3.88 shots/match
55.4%Possession16/1640.9%
4.75 corners/matchCorners16/164.63 corners/match
2.19 cards/matchCards16/162.44 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls16/1614.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.25 goals/match
1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shots8/89.38 shots/match
3.88 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83 shots/match
57.9%Possession8/839.8%
6.25 corners/matchCorners8/84.13 corners/match
2.63 cards/matchCards8/83.38 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls8/815 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.16 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.09 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 00:05 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsParis FCToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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