PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 18:00 UTCFull timeStade Saint-SymphorienFull-time recap

Metz

WWLLL
2–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMetzParis Saint Germain
Shots9 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match9 shots/match▲
Possession41%59%
Corners4 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Habibou Diallo · Metz · 32′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 54′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKoffi Kouao · Metz · 62′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMaxime Colin · Metz · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 71′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 78′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Mbaye · Paris Saint Germain · 71′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGauthier Hein · Metz · 76′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 27′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedQuentin Ndjantou · Paris Saint Germain · 46′ · 0.04 xG · on targetGeorgiy Tsitaishvili · Metz · 81′ · 0.05 xG · goalKang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 36′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 81′ · 0.06 xG · on targetGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 31′ · 0.07 xG · goalHabibou Diallo · Metz · 42′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMaxime Colin · Metz · 62′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 17′ · 0.09 xG · on targetJessy Deminguet · Metz · 42′ · 0.09 xG · goalGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 52′ · 0.11 xG · on targetGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 53′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedHabibou Diallo · Metz · 59′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 63′ · 0.52 xG · goalQuentin Ndjantou · Paris Saint Germain · 39′ · 0.62 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Metz: 9 shots, 5 on target, 0.60 xG. Paris Saint Germain: 14 shots, 9 on target, 1.87 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Jessy Deminguet · Metz · 42′Georgiy Tsitaishvili · Metz · 81′Gonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 31′Quentin Ndjantou · Paris Saint Germain · 39′Désiré Doué · Paris Saint Germain · 63′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Metz 0.60 xG · Paris Saint Germain 1.87 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Metz's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

8.94 shots/match▲ShotsMetz · Paris Saint Germain17.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMetzParis Saint GermainBaseline
Shots8.94 shots/match17.7 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against14.8 shots/match8.69 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metz's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Metz's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.06 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.06 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

48.8%▲PossessionMetz · Paris Saint Germain69.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 20.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMetzParis Saint GermainBaseline
Possession48.8%69.7%48.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Metz favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Paris Saint Germain in 10 · 4 too close

1.06 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/16▲2.19 goals/match
2.31 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/16▲0.88 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
8.94 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/16▲17.7 shots/match
14.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/16▲8.69 shots/match
3.19 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/16▲6.88 shots/match
6 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲2.94 shots/match
48.8%Possessionseason · 16/1669.7%
4.13 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/166.25 corners/match
5.25 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/16▲3.13 corners/match
1.69 cards/matchCardsseason · 16/16▲1.19 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1610.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/16▲50%
63%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/16▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Metz52.8
Paris Saint Germain97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Metz11.1
Paris Saint Germain95.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Metz9.3
Paris Saint Germain95.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Metz2.8
Paris Saint Germain63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Metz13.9
Paris Saint Germain2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Metz25
Paris Saint Germain80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Metz12.5
Paris Saint Germain69.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.8 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲18.2 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7.4 shots/match
49.4%Possession5/563.8%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.3 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲19 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲7.5 shots/match
48.1%Possession10/1068.2%
4.1 corners/matchCorners10/106.2 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/101.5 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches
1.06 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲2.19 goals/match
2.31 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲0.88 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.94 shots/matchShots16/16▲17.7 shots/match
3.19 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲6.88 shots/match
48.8%Possession16/1669.7%
4.13 corners/matchCorners16/166.25 corners/match
1.69 cards/matchCards16/161.19 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls16/1610.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 9 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored8/9▲2 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed8/91.22 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9 shots/matchShots8/9▲14.8 shots/match
3.13 shots/matchShots on target8/9▲6.11 shots/match
46.5%Possession8/968.7%
4.13 corners/matchCorners8/95.56 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards8/91.11 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls8/910 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.07 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.91 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMetzParis Saint Germain
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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