PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 7 Dec 2025, 16:15 UTCFull timeStade de l'Abbé DeschampsFull-time recap

Auxerre

LLLDD
3–1Full-time recap

Metz

WWWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAuxerreMetz
Shots14 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession39%61%
Corners5 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Kévin Danois · Auxerre · 41′ · 0.01 xG · on targetDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 65′ · 0.01 xG · on targetBoubacar Traoré · Metz · 7′ · 0.02 xG · on targetClement Akpa · Auxerre · 64′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOussama El Azzouzi · Auxerre · 66′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKévin Danois · Auxerre · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGauthier Hein · Metz · 71′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFredrik Oppegård · Auxerre · 52′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGauthier Hein · Metz · 45′ · 0.05 xG · goalKévin Danois · Auxerre · 89′ · 0.06 xG · goalLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 64′ · 0.07 xG · on targetFodé Ballo-Touré · Metz · 20′ · 0.10 xG · on targetOussama El Azzouzi · Auxerre · 48′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 13′ · 0.15 xG · on targetDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 45′ · 0.30 xG · off target or blockedOussama El Azzouzi · Auxerre · 39′ · 0.32 xG · goalHabibou Diallo · Metz · 47′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blockedLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 36′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Auxerre: 14 shots, 7 on target, 1.99 xG. Metz: 5 shots, 3 on target, 0.55 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Lassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 36′Oussama El Azzouzi · Auxerre · 39′Kévin Danois · Auxerre · 89′Gauthier Hein · Metz · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Auxerre 1.99 xG · Metz 0.55 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Metz's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Metz's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Metz's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Metz's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metz show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Metz's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.9 shots/match▲ShotsAuxerre · Metz8.93 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAuxerreMetzBaseline
Shots10.9 shots/match8.93 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against11.7 shots/match14.8 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Auxerre favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Metz in 3 · 5 too close

0.73 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/15▲1 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 15/152.27 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 15/158.93 shots/match
11.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 15/1514.8 shots/match
3.67 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 15/153.07 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 15/155.8 shots/match
43.9%Possessionseason · 15/1549.3%
4.73 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/154.13 corners/match
4.67 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 15/155.33 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCardsseason · 15/15▲1.67 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1511.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/1520%
53%Scoring frequencyseason · 15/15▲60%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Auxerre25
Metz52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Auxerre14.8
Metz13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Auxerre40.7
Metz9.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Auxerre52.8
Metz2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Auxerre79.2
Metz13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Auxerre58.3
Metz25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Auxerre45.1
Metz13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/match▲Shots5/510.2 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
42.8%Possession5/550.8%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.5 shots/match▲Shots10/109 shots/match
3.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.4 shots/match
44%Possession10/1049.3%
4.6 corners/matchCorners10/104.1 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches
0.73 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲1 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/152.27 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.9 shots/match▲Shots15/158.93 shots/match
3.67 shots/match▲Shots on target15/153.07 shots/match
43.9%Possession15/1549.3%
4.73 corners/matchCorners15/154.13 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards15/151.67 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls15/1511.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.25 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/83.38 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.1 shots/match▲Shots8/88.88 shots/match
3.38 shots/matchShots on target8/83.25 shots/match
42.9%Possession8/851%
5.25 corners/matchCorners8/84.13 corners/match
2.63 cards/matchCards8/81.88 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls8/810 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.93 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.85 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 7 Dec 2025, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAuxerreMetz
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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