PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 16:15 UTCFull timeStade de l'Abbé DeschampsFull-time recap

Auxerre

LLDDW
3–4Full-time recap

Lille

WLWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAuxerreLille
Shots18 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Possession45%55%
Corners10 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls21 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards5 cards/match2 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Nabil Bentaleb · Lille · 73′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSinaly Diomandé · Auxerre · 16′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNabil Bentaleb · Lille · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNabil Bentaleb · Lille · 77′ · 0.02 xG · goalDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 85′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAssane Dioussé · Auxerre · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetEthan Mbappé · Lille · 44′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLamine Sy · Auxerre · 47′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJosué Casimir · Auxerre · 47′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 33′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 35′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin André · Lille · 86′ · 0.05 xG · goalSékou Mara · Auxerre · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 29′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJosué Casimir · Auxerre · 23′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSoriba Diaoune · Lille · 80′ · 0.07 xG · goalLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 37′ · 0.08 xG · on targetLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 57′ · 0.08 xG · goalChancel Mbemba · Auxerre · 66′ · 0.10 xG · goalOsame Sahraoui · Lille · 9′ · 0.12 xG · on targetSékou Mara · Auxerre · 55′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 9′ · 0.16 xG · goalDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 55′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedJosué Casimir · Auxerre · 50′ · 0.35 xG · on targetLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 83′ · 0.82 xG · goalSinaly Diomandé · Auxerre · 55′ · 0.85 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Auxerre: 19 shots, 9 on target, 3.02 xG. Lille: 8 shots, 5 on target, 0.49 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Lassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 57′Chancel Mbemba · Auxerre · 66′Lassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 83′Hakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 9′Nabil Bentaleb · Lille · 77′Soriba Diaoune · Lille · 80′Benjamin André · Lille · 86′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Auxerre 3.02 xG · Lille 0.49 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Auxerre's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Lille have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Auxerre's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Auxerre's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.88 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match0.88 goals/match1.34 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Lille have recorded the higher season possession share.

44%▲PossessionAuxerre · Lille56.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAuxerreLilleBaseline
Possession44%56.1%48.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Auxerre favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Lille in 9 · 5 too close

0.88 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/16▲2.06 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/16▲1.25 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/16▲14.6 shots/match
11.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/16▲9.81 shots/match
3.94 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/16▲5 shots/match
4.63 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲3.69 shots/match
44%Possessionseason · 16/1656.1%
5.06 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/166.19 corners/match
4.56 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/164.38 corners/match
2.69 cards/matchCardsseason · 16/16▲2.5 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1612.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/16▲31%
56%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/16▲75%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Auxerre30.6
Lille86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Auxerre28.7
Lille86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Auxerre39.8
Lille74.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Auxerre69.4
Lille75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Auxerre86.2
Lille72.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Auxerre63.9
Lille86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Auxerre54.9
Lille79.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shots5/58.8 shots/match
5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.6 shots/match
42%Possession5/552.8%
5.6 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.5 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.1 shots/match
45.1%Possession10/1054.9%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/106.1 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards10/102.6 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲2.06 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲1.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShots16/16▲14.6 shots/match
3.94 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲5 shots/match
44%Possession16/1656.1%
5.06 corners/matchCorners16/166.19 corners/match
2.69 cards/matchCards16/162.5 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls16/1612.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 8 matches
1.11 goals/matchGoals scored9/8▲2.13 goals/match
1.22 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/81.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShots9/8▲14.1 shots/match
3.89 shots/matchShots on target9/8▲5 shots/match
43.1%Possession9/859.5%
5.78 corners/matchCorners9/86.38 corners/match
3.11 cards/matchCards9/83.25 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls9/813.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.84 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAuxerreLille
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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