PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 16:15 UTCFull timeStade de la MeinauFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

Lorient

LDDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricStrasbourgLorient
Shots12 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match2 shots/match
Possession63%37%
Corners11 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match3 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Laurent Abergel · Lorient · 31′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLaurent Abergel · Lorient · 39′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSamir El Mourabet · Strasbourg · 59′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDiego Moreira · Strasbourg · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNoah Cadiou · Lorient · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedValentín Barco · Strasbourg · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedThéo Le Bris · Lorient · 5′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIsmael Doukouré · Strasbourg · 20′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJean-Victor Makengo · Lorient · 38′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedValentín Barco · Strasbourg · 23′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPablo Pagis · Lorient · 71′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 81′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedValentín Barco · Strasbourg · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 41′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 33′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 47′ · 0.08 xG · on targetPablo Pagis · Lorient · 29′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSambou Soumano · Lorient · 44′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedSambou Soumano · Lorient · 25′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedSebastian Nanasi · Strasbourg · 60′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Strasbourg: 12 shots, 2 on target, 0.70 xG. Lorient: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.47 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Strasbourg 0.70 xG · Lorient 0.47 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Strasbourg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Strasbourg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Strasbourg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Strasbourg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.56 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.56 goals/match1.34 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Strasbourg show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Strasbourg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.1 shots/match▲ShotsStrasbourg · Lorient11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricStrasbourgLorientBaseline
Shots11.1 shots/match11.9 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against10.1 shots/match9.75 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Strasbourg have recorded the higher season possession share.

52.8%▲PossessionStrasbourg · Lorient43.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricStrasbourgLorientBaseline
Possession52.8%43.4%48.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Strasbourg favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Lorient in 2 · 6 too close

1.56 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/161.19 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/161.75 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/16▲11.9 shots/match
10.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/169.75 shots/match
4.19 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/163.88 shots/match
3.75 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/163.88 shots/match
52.8%Possessionseason · 16/1643.4%
3.75 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/163.13 corners/match
3.69 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/165.19 corners/match
2.38 cards/matchCardsseason · 16/16▲2.13 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1610.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
44%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1619%
81%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1663%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Strasbourg63.9
Lorient19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Strasbourg49.1
Lorient36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Strasbourg69.4
Lorient56.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Strasbourg8.3
Lorient80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Strasbourg55.5
Lorient25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Strasbourg19.4
Lorient5.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Strasbourg34.7
Lorient22.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.6 shots/match
2.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.6 shots/match
55.8%Possession5/542.8%
4 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/50.8 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots10/1011.8 shots/match
4.3 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match
54.9%Possession10/1043.2%
3.4 corners/matchCorners10/103.6 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/101.2 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls10/108.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches
1.56 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.19 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.1 shots/matchShots16/16▲11.9 shots/match
4.19 shots/match▲Shots on target16/163.88 shots/match
52.8%Possession16/1643.4%
3.75 corners/matchCorners16/163.13 corners/match
2.38 cards/matchCards16/162.13 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls16/1610.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.25 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/match▲Shots8/810.6 shots/match
5.38 shots/match▲Shots on target8/82.63 shots/match
53.8%Possession8/843.9%
4.88 corners/matchCorners8/83.38 corners/match
1.88 cards/matchCards8/82.13 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls8/810 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.93 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.85 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsStrasbourgLorient
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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