PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 16:15 UTCFull timeStade Bollaert-DelelisFull-time recap

Lens

WWWWW
2–0Full-time recap

Nice

LLLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLensNice
Shots15 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession46%54%
Corners2 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls17 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Mamadou Sangare · Lens · 10′ · 0.01 xG · on targetSamson Baidoo · Lens · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHicham Boudaoui · Nice · 47′ · 0.02 xG · on targetIsak Jansson · Nice · 48′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSofiane Diop · Nice · 48′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Sotoca · Lens · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRuben Aguilar · Lens · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Clauss · Nice · 13′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMohamed-Ali Cho · Nice · 41′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTiago Gouveia · Nice · 74′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Sangare · Lens · 77′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRayan Fofana · Lens · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRuben Aguilar · Lens · 2′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 15′ · 0.05 xG · goalRuben Aguilar · Lens · 30′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · Lens · 60′ · 0.07 xG · on targetMohamed-Ali Cho · Nice · 17′ · 0.08 xG · on targetWesley Saïd · Lens · 76′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 85′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 32′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 57′ · 0.31 xG · goalHicham Boudaoui · Nice · 37′ · 0.49 xG · on targetAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 88′ · 0.65 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lens: 15 shots, 5 on target, 1.69 xG. Nice: 8 shots, 4 on target, 0.75 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Odsonne Édouard · Lens · 15′Odsonne Édouard · Lens · 57′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lens 1.69 xG · Nice 0.75 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nice's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Lens's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nice's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nice's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.19 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.19 goals/match1.34 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lens show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Lens's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.9 shots/match▲ShotsLens · Nice11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLensNiceBaseline
Shots13.9 shots/match11.1 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against12.7 shots/match15.8 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lens favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Nice in 0 · 5 too close

1.75 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/161.19 goals/match
0.81 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/161.81 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 16/1611.1 shots/match
12.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 16/1615.8 shots/match
5.19 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/163.94 shots/match
3.75 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 16/165.63 shots/match
48.1%Possessionseason · 16/1647.7%
6 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/164.94 corners/match
4.56 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/165.63 corners/match
2.13 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 16/162.31 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1612.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
31%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1613%
75%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1675%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lens47.2
Nice41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lens82.4
Nice33.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lens68.5
Nice9.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lens91.7
Nice36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lens55.6
Nice59.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lens80.6
Nice58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lens79.2
Nice44.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17 shots/match▲Shots5/511.2 shots/match
6.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
54.4%Possession5/553%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/match▲Shots10/109.1 shots/match
5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.5 shots/match
50.1%Possession10/1042.7%
5.8 corners/matchCorners10/104.1 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls10/1012 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches
1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.19 goals/match
0.81 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.81 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.9 shots/match▲Shots16/1611.1 shots/match
5.19 shots/match▲Shots on target16/163.94 shots/match
48.1%Possession16/1647.7%
6 corners/matchCorners16/164.94 corners/match
2.13 cards/matchCards16/162.31 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls16/1612.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/82.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.9 shots/match▲Shots8/89.75 shots/match
5.63 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83 shots/match
49.3%Possession8/847.8%
7.25 corners/matchCorners8/84.75 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards8/82.75 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls8/813.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.01 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.09 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLensNice
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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