PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 16:00 UTCFull timeStade de la BeaujoireFull-time recap

Nantes

LLDDL
1–2Full-time recap

Lens

LWWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNantesLens
Shots10 shots/match20 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Possession34%66%
Corners1 corners/match12 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match0 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Ruben Aguilar · Lens · 18′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 30′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMamadou Sangare · Lens · 45′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 74′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 16′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 64′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 46′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBahmed Deuff · Nantes · 53′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMamadou Sangare · Lens · 13′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · Lens · 20′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 52′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 56′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSamson Baidoo · Lens · 76′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 85′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAmady Camara · Nantes · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAndrija Bulatovic · Lens · 43′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedIsmaelo Ganiou · Lens · 77′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 89′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Sangare · Lens · 73′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · Lens · 6′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · Lens · 59′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSamson Baidoo · Lens · 45′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 34′ · 0.16 xG · goalSamson Baidoo · Lens · 26′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedMalang Sarr · Lens · 6′ · 0.21 xG · on targetOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 13′ · 0.25 xG · on targetWesley Saïd · Lens · 81′ · 0.67 xG · goalYoussef El Arabi · Nantes · 38′ · 0.75 xG · goalYoussef El Arabi · Nantes · 38′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nantes: 10 shots, 4 on target, 1.82 xG. Lens: 20 shots, 6 on target, 2.35 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Youssef El Arabi · Nantes · 38′Florian Thauvin · Lens · 34′Wesley Saïd · Lens · 81′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nantes 1.82 xG · Lens 2.35 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lens's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Lens's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lens's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lens's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.73 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.73 goals/match1.45 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lens show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Lens's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9.93 shots/match▲ShotsNantes · Lens13.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNantesLensBaseline
Shots9.93 shots/match13.9 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against16.3 shots/match13 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nantes favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Lens in 9 · 4 too close

0.87 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/15▲1.73 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/15▲0.87 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.93 shots/matchShotsseason · 15/15▲13.9 shots/match
16.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 15/15▲13 shots/match
2.53 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 15/15▲5.2 shots/match
5.27 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 15/15▲3.73 shots/match
42.1%Possessionseason · 15/1548.3%
3.13 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/156.27 corners/match
6.67 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 15/15▲4.53 corners/match
1.73 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 15/152.27 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1512.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/15▲27%
53%Scoring frequencyseason · 15/15▲73%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nantes13.9
Lens47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nantes10.2
Lens81.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nantes20.3
Lens66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nantes41.7
Lens91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nantes25
Lens55.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nantes2.8
Lens80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nantes12.5
Lens77.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.4 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.8 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7 shots/match
41%Possession5/556.8%
2.6 corners/matchCorners5/56.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls5/512.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.8 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.1 shots/match
42.5%Possession10/1048.8%
2.8 corners/matchCorners10/106 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/102.7 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches
0.87 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲1.73 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲0.87 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.93 shots/matchShots15/15▲13.9 shots/match
2.53 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲5.2 shots/match
42.1%Possession15/1548.3%
3.13 corners/matchCorners15/156.27 corners/match
1.73 cards/matchCards15/152.27 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls15/1512.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.5 goals/match
1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.13 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShots8/8▲13 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲4.75 shots/match
42.8%Possession8/847%
3.13 corners/matchCorners8/84.75 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards8/82.5 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls8/814 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.84 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.99 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNantesLens
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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