PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 30 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeParc Olympique LyonnaisFull-time recap

Lyon

WDDLD
3–0Full-time recap

Nantes

WLLDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLyonNantes
Shots20 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession72%28%
Corners7 corners/match0 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Martín Satriano · Lyon · 18′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCorentin Tolisso · Lyon · 70′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 76′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMathys de Carvalho · Lyon · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPavel Šulc · Lyon · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPavel Šulc · Lyon · 26′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAbner Vinícius · Lyon · 54′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPavel Šulc · Lyon · 25′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMartín Satriano · Lyon · 30′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedCorentin Tolisso · Lyon · 55′ · 0.05 xG · on targetHans Hateboer · Lyon · 47′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 58′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAbner Vinícius · Lyon · 51′ · 0.08 xG · goalPavel Šulc · Lyon · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedTyler Morton · Lyon · 51′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAdam Karabec · Lyon · 90′ · 0.10 xG · on targetMatthis Abline · Nantes · 9′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMartín Satriano · Lyon · 70′ · 0.13 xG · goalAfonso Moreira · Lyon · 90′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 5′ · 0.20 xG · on targetNicolas Cozza · Nantes · 45′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedCorentin Tolisso · Lyon · 90′ · 0.24 xG · on targetMartín Satriano · Lyon · 77′ · 0.25 xG · goalJunior Mwanga · Nantes · 14′ · 0.42 xG · off target or blockedHans Hateboer · Lyon · 17′ · 0.42 xG · off target or blockedCorentin Tolisso · Lyon · 73′ · 0.46 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lyon: 20 shots, 8 on target, 2.37 xG. Nantes: 6 shots, 2 on target, 1.01 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Abner Vinícius · Lyon · 51′Martín Satriano · Lyon · 70′Martín Satriano · Lyon · 77′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lyon 2.37 xG · Nantes 1.01 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lyon's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Nantes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lyon show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Lyon's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.6 shots/match▲ShotsLyon · Nantes9.93 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLyonNantesBaseline
Shots12.6 shots/match9.93 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against11.3 shots/match16.1 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Nantes's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nantes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.86 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match0.86 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Lyon have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.4%▲PossessionLyon · Nantes42.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLyonNantesBaseline
Possession55.4%42.7%47.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lyon favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Nantes in 1 · 4 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 14/140.86 goals/match
1.07 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 14/141.57 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 14/149.93 shots/match
11.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 14/1416.1 shots/match
4.64 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 14/142.43 shots/match
3.21 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 14/145.21 shots/match
55.4%Possessionseason · 14/1442.7%
6.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/143.29 corners/match
4.79 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 14/146.29 corners/match
2.29 cards/matchCardsseason · 14/14▲1.71 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1411.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
57%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/1414%
86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1450%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lyon80.6
Nantes13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lyon59.3
Nantes9.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lyon80.6
Nantes21.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lyon13.9
Nantes30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lyon72.2
Nantes27.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lyon91.7
Nantes5.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lyon77.1
Nantes14.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots5/510.8 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.8 shots/match
53.6%Possession5/543.8%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/52.6 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.7 shots/match
4.3 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.6 shots/match
56.7%Possession10/1043.4%
6.6 corners/matchCorners10/103.1 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored14/140.86 goals/match
1.07 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.57 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/match▲Shots14/149.93 shots/match
4.64 shots/match▲Shots on target14/142.43 shots/match
55.4%Possession14/1442.7%
6.5 corners/matchCorners14/143.29 corners/match
2.29 cards/matchCards14/141.71 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
1.86 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.71 goals/match
0.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.29 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.9 shots/match▲Shots7/79 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target7/72 shots/match
56.4%Possession7/741.4%
6.29 corners/matchCorners7/73.14 corners/match
1.86 cards/matchCards7/72 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls7/711.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.24 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.15 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 30 Nov 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLyonNantes
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match