PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Stadium de Toulouse

Toulouse 1–0 RC Strasbourg · Ligue 1

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Toulouse won 1–0.

Shots
63
Shots on target
30
Expected goals
0.50.05
Possession
28%72%

Full time

What the match recorded

Toulouse beat Strasbourg 1–0. Recorded in this match (Toulouse – Strasbourg): shots 6–3, shots on target 3–0, expected goals 0.5–0.05, possession 28%–72%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Strasbourg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Strasbourg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.67 goals/match1.45 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Toulouse have a visible home split

moderate

Toulouse's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Strasbourg have recorded the higher season possession share.

41.3%PossessionToulouse · Strasbourg● 52.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricToulouseStrasbourgBaseline
Possession41.3%52.1%48.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots6 shots3 shotsToulouse 6 shots, RC Strasbourg 3 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots0 shotsToulouse 3 shots, RC Strasbourg 0 shots
  • Expected goals0.5 xG0.05 xGToulouse 0.5 xG, RC Strasbourg 0.05 xG
  • Possession28%72%Toulouse 28%, RC Strasbourg 72%
  • Corners1 corner2 cornersToulouse 1 corner, RC Strasbourg 2 corners
  • Fouls21 fouls13 foulsToulouse 21 fouls, RC Strasbourg 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards3 cardsToulouse 3 cards, RC Strasbourg 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Julio Enciso · Strasbourg · 8′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKendry Páez · Strasbourg · 66′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSamir El Mourabet · Strasbourg · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEmersonn · Toulouse · 11′ · 0.03 xG · on targetSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 32′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 32′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedEmersonn · Toulouse · 18′ · 0.14 xG · goalEmersonn · Toulouse · 18′ · 0.18 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Toulouse: 6 shots, 3 on target, 0.50 xG. Strasbourg: 3 shots, 0 on target, 0.05 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.250.50′HT90′Emersonn · Toulouse · 18′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Toulouse 0.50 xG · Strasbourg 0.05 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Toulouse
1Draws
3RC Strasbourg
RC Strasbourg — Toulouse · Ligue 12–1
Toulouse — RC Strasbourg · Ligue 11–2
Toulouse — RC Strasbourg · Ligue 10–0
RC Strasbourg — Toulouse · Ligue 12–0
RC Strasbourg — Toulouse · Ligue 11–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Toulouse favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · RC Strasbourg in 8 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Toulouse15 matchesRC Strasbourg15 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲ 1.67 goals/match
1.27 goals/matchGoals allowed15/151.33 goals/match
1.4 xG/matchExpected goals15/15▲ 1.64 xG/match
12.5 shots/match ▲Shots15/1511.1 shots/match
3.93 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲ 4.33 shots/match
41.3%Possession15/15● 52.1%
4.67 corners/match ●Corners15/153.27 corners/match
2.53 cards/matchCards15/152.47 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls15/1512 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsToulouseRC Strasbourg
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2025/26
Head-to-headToulouse — RC Strasbourg
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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