PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 18:00 UTCFull timeStadium de ToulouseFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricToulouseStrasbourg
Shots6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match▲0 shots/match
Possession28%72%
Corners1 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls21 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Julio Enciso · Strasbourg · 8′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKendry Páez · Strasbourg · 66′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSamir El Mourabet · Strasbourg · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEmersonn · Toulouse · 11′ · 0.03 xG · on targetSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 32′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 32′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedEmersonn · Toulouse · 18′ · 0.14 xG · goalEmersonn · Toulouse · 18′ · 0.18 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Toulouse: 6 shots, 3 on target, 0.50 xG. Strasbourg: 3 shots, 0 on target, 0.05 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.250.50′HT90′Emersonn · Toulouse · 18′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Toulouse 0.50 xG · Strasbourg 0.05 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Strasbourg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Toulouse's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Strasbourg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Strasbourg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.67 goals/match1.45 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Toulouse have a visible home split

moderate

Toulouse's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Strasbourg have recorded the higher season possession share.

41.3%▲PossessionToulouse · Strasbourg52.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricToulouseStrasbourgBaseline
Possession41.3%52.1%48.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Toulouse favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Strasbourg in 6 · 6 too close

1.4 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/15▲1.67 goals/match
1.27 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/151.33 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 15/1511.1 shots/match
11.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 15/15▲10.1 shots/match
3.87 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 15/15▲4.33 shots/match
3.13 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 15/153.87 shots/match
41.3%Possessionseason · 15/1552.1%
4.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/153.27 corners/match
5.2 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 15/15▲3.73 corners/match
2.53 cards/matchCardsseason · 15/152.47 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1512 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/15▲40%
73%Scoring frequencyseason · 15/15▲87%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Toulouse8.3
Strasbourg63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Toulouse49.1
Strasbourg52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Toulouse75
Strasbourg65.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Toulouse97.2
Strasbourg8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Toulouse94.5
Strasbourg66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Toulouse47.2
Strasbourg8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Toulouse61.1
Strasbourg36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/50.8 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/match▲Shots5/59.8 shots/match
3.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.2 shots/match
40.2%Possession5/555%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
15.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.3 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target10/104.2 shots/match
41.5%Possession10/1052.6%
4.8 corners/matchCorners10/102.8 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match
15.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲1.67 goals/match
1.27 goals/matchGoals allowed15/151.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/match▲Shots15/1511.1 shots/match
3.87 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲4.33 shots/match
41.3%Possession15/1552.1%
4.67 corners/matchCorners15/153.27 corners/match
2.53 cards/matchCards15/152.47 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls15/1512 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.38 goals/match
1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/82 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/match▲Shots8/89.75 shots/match
4.75 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83 shots/match
42%Possession8/851.9%
5.13 corners/matchCorners8/82.63 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards8/82.88 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls8/813 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Dec 2025, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsToulouseStrasbourg
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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