PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 20:05 UTCFull timeOrange VélodromeFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMarseilleToulouse
Shots20 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession77%23%
Corners9 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 53′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 12′ · 0.02 xG · on targetEmersonn · Toulouse · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 49′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNayef Aguerd · Marseille · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTimothy Weah · Marseille · 30′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAngel Gomes · Marseille · 40′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBilal Nadir · Marseille · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMason Greenwood · Marseille · 63′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 51′ · 0.05 xG · on targetPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 45′ · 0.06 xG · on targetRobinio Vaz · Marseille · 64′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBilal Nadir · Marseille · 59′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 10′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedBilal Nadir · Marseille · 52′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedNayef Aguerd · Marseille · 62′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille · 52′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.10 xG · goalEmersonn · Toulouse · 14′ · 0.15 xG · goalPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille · 74′ · 0.15 xG · goalEmersonn · Toulouse · 65′ · 0.35 xG · on targetIgor Paixão · Marseille · 66′ · 0.79 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Marseille: 20 shots, 5 on target, 1.76 xG. Toulouse: 6 shots, 4 on target, 0.69 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Igor Paixão · Marseille · 66′Pierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille · 74′Emersonn · Toulouse · 14′Santiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Marseille 1.76 xG · Toulouse 0.69 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Toulouse's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Toulouse's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Toulouse's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Toulouse's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.43 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.43 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Toulouse have a visible away split

moderate

Toulouse's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.71 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.71 shots/match13 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Marseille have recorded the higher season possession share.

60.1%▲PossessionMarseille · Toulouse42.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMarseilleToulouseBaseline
Possession60.1%42.2%47.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Marseille favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Toulouse in 1 · 4 too close

2.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 14/141.43 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 14/141.36 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 14/1413 shots/match
9.21 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 14/1411.8 shots/match
5.93 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 14/143.93 shots/match
3.86 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 14/14▲3.36 shots/match
60.1%Possessionseason · 14/1442.2%
5.64 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/144.93 corners/match
3.43 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 14/145.43 corners/match
2.36 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 14/142.5 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1413.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
36%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/1429%
86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1471%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Marseille91.7
Toulouse8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Marseille91.7
Toulouse56.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Marseille79.6
Toulouse62.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Marseille47.2
Toulouse97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Marseille44.5
Toulouse83.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Marseille75
Toulouse63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Marseille73.6
Toulouse66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/matchShots5/514 shots/match
6.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
59.6%Possession5/545.6%
5 corners/matchCorners5/56.2 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/matchShots10/1014.3 shots/match
6.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104 shots/match
59.5%Possession10/1044.7%
4.8 corners/matchCorners10/105.1 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/102.6 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1015.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.43 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.36 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shots14/1413 shots/match
5.93 shots/match▲Shots on target14/143.93 shots/match
60.1%Possession14/1442.2%
5.64 corners/matchCorners14/144.93 corners/match
2.36 cards/matchCards14/142.5 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls14/1413.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
3.29 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71 goals/match
1.14 goals/matchGoals allowed7/71.14 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.7 shots/match▲Shots7/79.71 shots/match
6.43 shots/match▲Shots on target7/72.86 shots/match
62.7%Possession7/740.4%
5.43 corners/matchCorners7/74.14 corners/match
1.86 cards/matchCards7/73.71 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls7/715.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.01 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.16 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 30 Nov 2025, 00:05 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMarseilleToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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