PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTCFull timeStade Louis IIFull-time recap

Monaco

WWLLL
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMonacoParis Saint Germain
Shots10 shots/match17 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession43%57%
Corners4 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Willian Pacho · Paris Saint Germain · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFabián Ruiz · Paris Saint Germain · 20′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAleksandr Golovin · Monaco · 22′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 35′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAleksandr Golovin · Monaco · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Mbaye · Paris Saint Germain · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 25′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedVanderson · Monaco · 48′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 32′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint Germain · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetVitinha · Paris Saint Germain · 26′ · 0.05 xG · on targetLamine Camara · Monaco · 41′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint Germain · 53′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFabián Ruiz · Paris Saint Germain · 74′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJordan Teze · Monaco · 73′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMohammed Salisu · Monaco · 4′ · 0.08 xG · on targetTakumi Minamino · Monaco · 28′ · 0.08 xG · on targetLucas Hernández · Paris Saint Germain · 72′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJoão Neves · Paris Saint Germain · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedTakumi Minamino · Monaco · 68′ · 0.09 xG · goalMohammed Salisu · Monaco · 33′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSenny Mayulu · Paris Saint Germain · 55′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedThilo Kehrer · Monaco · 40′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedKang-in Lee · Paris Saint Germain · 35′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedJoão Neves · Paris Saint Germain · 82′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 54′ · 0.26 xG · on targetQuentin Ndjantou · Paris Saint Germain · 85′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Monaco: 10 shots, 5 on target, 0.64 xG. Paris Saint Germain: 17 shots, 4 on target, 1.37 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Takumi Minamino · Monaco · 68′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Monaco 0.64 xG · Paris Saint Germain 1.37 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Paris Saint Germain's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.7 shots/match▲ShotsMonaco · Paris Saint Germain17.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMonacoParis Saint GermainBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match17.8 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against13.6 shots/match8.86 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Paris Saint Germain's recent record differs from the season

weak

Paris Saint Germain's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.93 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.93 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.1%▲PossessionMonaco · Paris Saint Germain70.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMonacoParis Saint GermainBaseline
Possession54.1%70.7%47.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Monaco favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Paris Saint Germain in 8 · 6 too close

1.86 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 14/141.93 goals/match
1.79 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 14/14▲0.86 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/14▲17.8 shots/match
13.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 14/14▲8.86 shots/match
4.14 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/14▲6.57 shots/match
4.29 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 14/14▲2.86 shots/match
54.1%Possessionseason · 14/1470.7%
4.43 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/146.29 corners/match
4.71 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 14/14▲2.86 corners/match
2.79 cards/matchCardsseason · 14/14▲1.29 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1410.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/14▲50%
86%Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1486%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Monaco75
Paris Saint Germain97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Monaco65.8
Paris Saint Germain93.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Monaco30.5
Paris Saint Germain95.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Monaco36.1
Paris Saint Germain63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Monaco80.5
Paris Saint Germain2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Monaco36.1
Paris Saint Germain86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Monaco54.2
Paris Saint Germain70.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.6 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲20 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7 shots/match
50%Possession5/569.8%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/56.8 corners/match
3.6 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.7 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲18.3 shots/match
4.7 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲7 shots/match
52.4%Possession10/1069.1%
4 corners/matchCorners10/105.8 corners/match
2.9 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
1.86 goals/matchGoals scored14/141.93 goals/match
1.79 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲0.86 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShots14/14▲17.8 shots/match
4.14 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲6.57 shots/match
54.1%Possession14/1470.7%
4.43 corners/matchCorners14/146.29 corners/match
2.79 cards/matchCards14/141.29 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls14/1410.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.88 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.13 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.9 shots/matchShots8/8▲14.9 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲5.75 shots/match
53.5%Possession8/869.9%
4.38 corners/matchCorners8/85.75 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards8/81.13 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls8/810 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.83 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMonacoParis Saint Germain
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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