UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 26 Nov 2025, 17:45 UTCFull timeAlphamega StadiumFull-time recap

Pafos FC

DDLDW

2–2Full-time recap

Monaco

LDDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Pafos FC	Monaco
Shots	17 shots/match▲	14 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.18 xG/match	1.52 xG/match▲
Possession	48%	52%
Corners	5 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	14 fouls/match	9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Pafos FC: 18 shots, 5 on target, 1.38 xG. Monaco: 14 shots, 6 on target, 1.54 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Pafos FC 1.38 xG · Monaco 1.54 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Pafos FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Pafos FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Pafos FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.09 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.09 goals/match	1.6 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Pafos FC favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Monaco in 8 · 4 too close

1.09 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/5▲1.2 goals/match

0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 11/51.6 goals/match

0.89 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 5/5▲1.61 xG/match

2.18 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 5/5▲1.68 xG/match

9.71 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/5▲13.4 shots/match

19.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/5▲17.8 shots/match

3.29 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/5▲4.8 shots/match

5.71 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/5▲5.2 shots/match

39.6%Possessionseason · 7/544.8%

2.86 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/54.8 corners/match

6.14 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/5▲4 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/513.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

55%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/540%

82%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/580%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Pafos FC3.6

Monaco15.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 64%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Pafos FC15.3

Monaco39

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 76%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Pafos FC37.8

Monaco28.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 76%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Pafos FC27.4

Monaco67.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 64%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Pafos FC75

Monaco77.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 32%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Pafos FC4.8

Monaco60.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 64%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Pafos FC24.7

Monaco56.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 64%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match

1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match

0.89 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.61 xG/match

8.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.4 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.8 shots/match

36.8%Possession5/544.8%

2.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12 fouls/matchFouls5/513.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 5 matches

1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/5▲1.2 goals/match

0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/51.6 goals/match

0.89 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.61 xG/match

9.71 shots/matchShots7/5▲13.4 shots/match

3.29 shots/matchShots on target7/5▲4.8 shots/match

39.6%Possession7/544.8%

2.86 corners/matchCorners7/54.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.4 fouls/matchFouls7/513.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 5 matches

1.09 goals/matchGoals scored11/5▲1.2 goals/match

0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/51.6 goals/match

0.89 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.61 xG/match

9.71 shots/matchShots7/5▲13.4 shots/match

3.29 shots/matchShots on target7/5▲4.8 shots/match

39.6%Possession7/544.8%

2.86 corners/matchCorners7/54.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.4 fouls/matchFouls7/513.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 3 matches

1.33 goals/matchGoals scored6/31.33 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/32 goals/match

0.77 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲1.38 xG/match

9.75 shots/matchShots4/3▲12 shots/match

3.25 shots/matchShots on target4/3▲4.33 shots/match

43%Possession4/346.3%

3 corners/matchCorners4/34 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.5 fouls/matchFouls4/311.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/121.9 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples11 / 5home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 26 Nov 2025, 21:45 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Pafos FC's recent record differs from the season

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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