PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 18:00 UTCFull timeStade Jean BouinFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

Auxerre

LLLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricParis FCAuxerre
Shots11 shots/match11 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match3 shots/match▲
Possession55%45%
Corners4 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match17 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Vincent Marchetti · Paris FC · 74′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedOtávio · Paris FC · 88′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMathieu Cafaro · Paris FC · 88′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlimami Gory · Paris FC · 38′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKévin Danois · Auxerre · 9′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSékou Mara · Auxerre · 65′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 69′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 10′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 68′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC · 23′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedWillem Geubbels · Paris FC · 84′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 26′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 37′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSékou Mara · Auxerre · 48′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Osman · Auxerre · 76′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSékou Mara · Auxerre · 45′ · 0.09 xG · on targetJonathan Ikoné · Paris FC · 82′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC · 77′ · 0.18 xG · on targetKévin Danois · Auxerre · 5′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedSinaly Diomandé · Auxerre · 40′ · 0.30 xG · goalAdama Camara · Paris FC · 48′ · 0.49 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 32′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris FC: 11 shots, 2 on target, 1.82 xG. Auxerre: 11 shots, 3 on target, 1.09 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Ilan Kebbal · Paris FC · 32′Sinaly Diomandé · Auxerre · 40′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris FC 1.82 xG · Auxerre 1.09 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Auxerre's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Paris FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Auxerre's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Auxerre's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.57 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.57 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris FC have a visible home split

moderate

Paris FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.4 shots/match12.6 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Paris FC have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.6%▲PossessionParis FC · Auxerre44.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricParis FCAuxerreBaseline
Possession54.6%44.3%47.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris FC favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Auxerre in 3 · 4 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 14/140.57 goals/match
1.86 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 14/14▲1.43 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 14/1410.6 shots/match
11.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 14/1412.1 shots/match
3.86 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 14/143.43 shots/match
4.14 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 14/144.71 shots/match
54.6%Possessionseason · 14/1444.3%
4.79 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/144.71 corners/match
5.07 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 14/14▲4.79 corners/match
2.14 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 14/142.43 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1413.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/14▲21%
86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1450%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris FC80.6
Auxerre25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris FC52.8
Auxerre13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris FC45.4
Auxerre39.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris FC25
Auxerre41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris FC30.6
Auxerre77.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris FC52.8
Auxerre47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris FC43
Auxerre41.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/match▲Shots5/510 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.6 shots/match
50.4%Possession5/542.2%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match
3.4 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls5/513.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.5 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.7 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target10/103.1 shots/match
55.3%Possession10/1044.1%
4.3 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored14/140.57 goals/match
1.86 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲1.43 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/match▲Shots14/1410.6 shots/match
3.86 shots/match▲Shots on target14/143.43 shots/match
54.6%Possession14/1444.3%
4.79 corners/matchCorners14/144.71 corners/match
2.14 cards/matchCards14/142.43 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls14/1413.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
1.71 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.57 goals/match
1.71 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.4 shots/match▲Shots7/710.6 shots/match
4.14 shots/matchShots on target7/74 shots/match
56.9%Possession7/745.1%
6.14 corners/matchCorners7/74.14 corners/match
2.57 cards/matchCards7/72.14 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls7/714 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.93 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsParis FCAuxerre
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match