PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 23 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeStade Pierre-MauroyFull-time recap

Lille

WWLWL
4–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLilleParis FC
Shots17 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target10 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession52%48%
Corners9 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Nabil Bentaleb · Lille · 45′ · 0.01 xG · on targetFélix Correia · Lille · 16′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNabil Bentaleb · Lille · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVincent Marchetti · Paris FC · 11′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRomain Perraud · Lille · 17′ · 0.03 xG · on targetHamza Igamane · Lille · 23′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedWillem Geubbels · Paris FC · 47′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHamza Igamane · Lille · 25′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedVincent Marchetti · Paris FC · 58′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMarius Broholm · Lille · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedHamza Igamane · Lille · 45′ · 0.09 xG · on targetChancel Mbemba · Lille · 61′ · 0.10 xG · on targetAyyoub Bouaddi · Lille · 79′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedHamza Igamane · Lille · 45′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Giroud · Lille · 16′ · 0.22 xG · on targetOlivier Giroud · Lille · 40′ · 0.25 xG · goalLohann Doucet · Paris FC · 84′ · 0.28 xG · goalVincent Marchetti · Paris FC · 70′ · 0.50 xG · on targetOlivier Giroud · Lille · 42′ · 0.57 xG · on targetWillem Geubbels · Paris FC · 11′ · 0.67 xG · goalAïssa Mandi · Lille · 80′ · 0.70 xG · goalOlivier Giroud · Lille · 77′ · 0.82 xG · goalMarius Broholm · Lille · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lille: 17 shots, 10 on target, 4.07 xG. Paris FC: 6 shots, 3 on target, 1.58 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

02.254.50′HT90′Olivier Giroud · Lille · 40′Olivier Giroud · Lille · 77′Aïssa Mandi · Lille · 80′Marius Broholm · Lille · 90′Willem Geubbels · Paris FC · 11′Lohann Doucet · Paris FC · 84′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lille 4.07 xG · Paris FC 1.58 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Lille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Paris FC have a visible away split

moderate

Paris FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.86 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.86 shots/match12.8 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Lille show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Lille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.4 shots/match▲ShotsLille · Paris FC12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLilleParis FCBaseline
Shots16.4 shots/match12.8 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against9.15 shots/match11.5 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lille favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Paris FC in 2 · 4 too close

2.08 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 13/131.54 goals/match
1.31 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 13/131.92 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
16.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 13/1312.8 shots/match
9.15 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 13/1311.5 shots/match
5.46 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 13/134 shots/match
3.23 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 13/134.23 shots/match
57.2%Possessionseason · 13/1354.6%
7.08 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/134.85 corners/match
3.77 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 13/135.23 corners/match
2.38 cards/matchCardsseason · 13/13▲2.15 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1311.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
23%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/1315%
69%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/13▲85%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lille86.1
Paris FC75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lille88.9
Paris FC54.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lille81.5
Paris FC40.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lille91.7
Paris FC30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lille66.7
Paris FC29.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lille97.2
Paris FC52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lille87.5
Paris FC44.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.4 shots/match▲Shots5/512 shots/match
6.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.8 shots/match
58.8%Possession5/553%
8.4 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/53.6 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.5 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.7 shots/match
5.3 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.2 shots/match
58.1%Possession10/1055.2%
7.4 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards10/102.6 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches
2.08 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.54 goals/match
1.31 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.92 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.4 shots/match▲Shots13/1312.8 shots/match
5.46 shots/match▲Shots on target13/134 shots/match
57.2%Possession13/1354.6%
7.08 corners/matchCorners13/134.85 corners/match
2.38 cards/matchCards13/132.15 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
2.14 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.29 goals/match
0.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.6 shots/match▲Shots7/79.86 shots/match
5.43 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.57 shots/match
54.3%Possession7/752.4%
6.57 corners/matchCorners7/73.43 corners/match
1.86 cards/matchCards7/71.71 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls7/711.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/116 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 23 Nov 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLilleParis FC
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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