PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 23 Nov 2025, 16:15 UTCFull timeStade de la BeaujoireFull-time recap

Nantes

LWLLD
1–1Full-time recap

Lorient

DLDLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNantesLorient
Shots9 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target1 shots/match1 shots/match
Possession56%44%
Corners1 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls17 fouls/match17 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Mostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 70′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedArthur Avom Ebong · Lorient · 7′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNoah Cadiou · Lorient · 18′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHyeok-kyu Kwon · Nantes · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJean-Victor Makengo · Lorient · 63′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMayckel Lahdo · Nantes · 26′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPablo Pagis · Lorient · 63′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJean-Victor Makengo · Lorient · 88′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKarim Dermane · Lorient · 20′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJunior Mwanga · Nantes · 25′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDehmaine Tabibou · Nantes · 78′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAiyegun Tosin · Lorient · 2′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedChidozie Awaziem · Lorient · 45′ · 0.10 xG · goalMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 85′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedChidozie Awaziem · Nantes · 90′ · 0.14 xG · goalMatthis Abline · Nantes · 72′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 22′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nantes: 9 shots, 1 on target, 0.83 xG. Lorient: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.42 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Chidozie Awaziem · Nantes · 90′Chidozie Awaziem · Lorient · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nantes 0.83 xG · Lorient 0.42 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nantes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Nantes's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nantes's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nantes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.92 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match0.92 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nantes show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Nantes's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.2 shots/match▲ShotsNantes · Lorient11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNantesLorientBaseline
Shots10.2 shots/match11.5 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against15.8 shots/match9.85 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nantes favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Lorient in 7 · 4 too close

0.92 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/13▲1.15 goals/match
1.46 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 13/132.08 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/13▲11.5 shots/match
15.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/13▲9.85 shots/match
2.46 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/13▲3.62 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/13▲4.15 shots/match
43.8%Possessionseason · 13/1344.2%
3.54 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/133.31 corners/match
6.23 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/13▲4.46 corners/match
1.62 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 13/132.38 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1311 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
15%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/138%
54%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/13▲62%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nantes13.9
Lorient22.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nantes10.2
Lorient33.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nantes24
Lorient46.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nantes25
Lorient69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nantes29.2
Lorient33.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nantes13.9
Lorient8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nantes18.1
Lorient21.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShots5/511.4 shots/match
3 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match
44.6%Possession5/544.2%
3 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/50.6 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/58.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match
1.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.8 shots/match
2.7 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.5 shots/match
44.7%Possession10/1042.7%
3.5 corners/matchCorners10/103.3 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls10/109.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches
0.92 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲1.15 goals/match
1.46 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/132.08 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots13/13▲11.5 shots/match
2.46 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲3.62 shots/match
43.8%Possession13/1344.2%
3.54 corners/matchCorners13/133.31 corners/match
1.62 cards/matchCards13/132.38 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls13/1311 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.29 goals/match
1.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.9 shots/matchShots7/710.9 shots/match
2.86 shots/matchShots on target7/72.71 shots/match
44%Possession7/744.9%
3.43 corners/matchCorners7/73.43 corners/match
1.43 cards/matchCards7/72.43 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls7/711 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.1 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 23 Nov 2025, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNantesLorient
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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