PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 23 Nov 2025, 16:15 UTCFull timeStadium de ToulouseFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

Angers

DWDLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricToulouseAngers
Shots25 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession54%46%
Corners11 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Louis Mouton · Angers · 47′ · 0.01 xG · on targetFrank Magri · Toulouse · 2′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYassin Belkhdim · Angers · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDayann Methalie · Toulouse · 25′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDayann Methalie · Toulouse · 48′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEmersonn · Toulouse · 78′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNoah Edjouma · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Vossah · Toulouse · 31′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDayann Methalie · Toulouse · 44′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMark McKenzie · Toulouse · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 82′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 30′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 56′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedYassin Belkhdim · Angers · 16′ · 0.07 xG · goalMark McKenzie · Toulouse · 43′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedYassin Belkhdim · Angers · 10′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLouis Mouton · Angers · 61′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMark McKenzie · Toulouse · 44′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse · 61′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedNoah Edjouma · Toulouse · 85′ · 0.09 xG · on targetAlexis Vossah · Toulouse · 5′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAmine Sbai · Angers · 64′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 5′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedEmersonn · Toulouse · 45′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedNoah Edjouma · Toulouse · 89′ · 0.13 xG · on targetCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 45′ · 0.26 xG · on targetEmersonn · Toulouse · 85′ · 0.45 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Toulouse: 25 shots, 6 on target, 2.10 xG. Angers: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.36 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Yassin Belkhdim · Angers · 16′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Toulouse 2.10 xG · Angers 0.36 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Angers's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Toulouse's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Angers's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Angers's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.85 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match0.85 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Toulouse have a visible home split

moderate

Toulouse's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.3 shots/match13.5 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Toulouse show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Toulouse's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.5 shots/match▲ShotsToulouse · Angers8.69 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricToulouseAngersBaseline
Shots13.5 shots/match8.69 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against11.2 shots/match15.4 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Toulouse favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Angers in 2 · 5 too close

1.38 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 13/130.85 goals/match
1.31 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 13/13▲1.15 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 13/138.69 shots/match
11.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 13/1315.4 shots/match
3.92 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 13/133 shots/match
3.23 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 13/135.54 shots/match
43.7%Possessionseason · 13/1339.6%
5.23 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/133.77 corners/match
5.15 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 13/135.85 corners/match
2.62 cards/matchCardsseason · 13/13▲1.54 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1311.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
31%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/1331%
69%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 13/1362%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Toulouse8.3
Angers2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Toulouse56.5
Angers9.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Toulouse74.1
Angers35.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Toulouse97.2
Angers8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Toulouse93.1
Angers16.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Toulouse63.9
Angers19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Toulouse70.8
Angers16
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.8 shots/match▲Shots5/58 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.6 shots/match
50.2%Possession5/543.8%
7 corners/matchCorners5/52.4 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls5/513 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shots10/109.2 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103 shots/match
45.4%Possession10/1043%
5.6 corners/matchCorners10/104.5 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards10/101.5 cards/match
15.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches
1.38 goals/match▲Goals scored13/130.85 goals/match
1.31 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲1.15 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shots13/138.69 shots/match
3.92 shots/match▲Shots on target13/133 shots/match
43.7%Possession13/1339.6%
5.23 corners/matchCorners13/133.77 corners/match
2.62 cards/matchCards13/131.54 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
1.86 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.57 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowed7/71.57 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.3 shots/match▲Shots7/77.43 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target7/72.29 shots/match
44%Possession7/737.3%
5.71 corners/matchCorners7/72.86 corners/match
1.29 cards/matchCards7/71.29 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls7/79.86 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 23 Nov 2025, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsToulouseAngers
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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