PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 23 Nov 2025, 16:15 UTCFull timeStade Francis-Le BléFull-time recap
3–2Full-time recap

Metz

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricStade Brestois 29Metz
Shots20 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession56%44%
Corners6 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Maxime Colin · Metz · 90′ · 0.00 xG · on targetHugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois 29 · 37′ · 0.01 xG · on targetGauthier Hein · Metz · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJoris Chotard · Stade Brestois 29 · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 · 11′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSoumaila Coulibaly · Stade Brestois 29 · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDaouda Guindo · Stade Brestois 29 · 59′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoris Chotard · Stade Brestois 29 · 43′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGauthier Hein · Metz · 76′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBrendan Chardonnet · Stade Brestois 29 · 38′ · 0.05 xG · on targetKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 58′ · 0.05 xG · on targetLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 31′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 42′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedGauthier Hein · Metz · 89′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 48′ · 0.07 xG · goalPathé Mboup · Stade Brestois 29 · 2′ · 0.09 xG · goalKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 22′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSoumaila Coulibaly · Metz · 79′ · 0.10 xG · goalKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 26′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedCheick Tidiane Sabaly · Metz · 87′ · 0.12 xG · on targetPathé Mboup · Stade Brestois 29 · 28′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedPathé Mboup · Stade Brestois 29 · 72′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 44′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedJoris Chotard · Stade Brestois 29 · 63′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blockedGeorgiy Tsitaishvili · Metz · 6′ · 0.35 xG · goalJoel Asoro · Metz · 63′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blockedRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 · 90′ · 0.82 xG · on targetRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Stade Brestois 29: 20 shots, 7 on target, 3.18 xG. Metz: 8 shots, 4 on target, 1.06 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Pathé Mboup · Stade Brestois 29 · 2′Kamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 · 48′Romain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 · 90′Georgiy Tsitaishvili · Metz · 6′Soumaila Coulibaly · Metz · 79′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Stade Brestois 29 3.18 xG · Metz 1.06 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Metz's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Stade Brestois 29's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Metz's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Metz's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.08 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.08 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Stade Brestois 29 have a visible home split

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.7 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.7 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Stade Brestois 29 show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Stade Brestois 29's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.5 shots/match▲ShotsStade Brestois 29 · Metz8.69 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricStade Brestois 29MetzBaseline
Shots12.5 shots/match8.69 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against12.6 shots/match15.3 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Stade Brestois 29 favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Metz in 1 · 6 too close

1.31 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 13/131.08 goals/match
1.77 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 13/132.31 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 13/138.69 shots/match
12.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 13/1315.3 shots/match
3.85 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 13/132.92 shots/match
4.54 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 13/136 shots/match
44.6%Possessionseason · 13/1348.2%
4.69 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/134.08 corners/match
5.31 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/135.54 corners/match
1.62 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 13/131.85 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1311.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
23%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/1323%
54%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/13▲62%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Stade Brestois 2930.6
Metz52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Stade Brestois 2941.7
Metz13
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Stade Brestois 2933.4
Metz8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Stade Brestois 2980.6
Metz2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2934.8
Metz19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Stade Brestois 2941.7
Metz25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Stade Brestois 2945.9
Metz13.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
1.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.2 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.6 shots/match
44.2%Possession5/545%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.9 shots/match▲Shots10/108.6 shots/match
4.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.4 shots/match
44.9%Possession10/1049.2%
4.9 corners/matchCorners10/104.1 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches
1.31 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.08 goals/match
1.77 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/132.31 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/match▲Shots13/138.69 shots/match
3.85 shots/match▲Shots on target13/132.92 shots/match
44.6%Possession13/1348.2%
4.69 corners/matchCorners13/134.08 corners/match
1.62 cards/matchCards13/131.85 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
1.57 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.29 goals/match
1.57 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/73.43 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.7 shots/match▲Shots7/79.43 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.29 shots/match
44.6%Possession7/749.6%
6 corners/matchCorners7/74.29 corners/match
1.29 cards/matchCards7/72 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls7/79.71 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 23 Nov 2025, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsStade Brestois 29Metz
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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