PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 28 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeStade Saint-SymphorienFull-time recap

Metz

LWWWL
0–1Full-time recap

Rennes

LDWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMetzRennes
Shots16 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession52%48%
Corners6 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match0 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Georgiy Tsitaishvili · Metz · 25′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedGeorgiy Tsitaishvili · Metz · 10′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBoubacar Traoré · Metz · 44′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBoubacar Traoré · Metz · 55′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGiorgi Abuashvili · Metz · 90′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJean-Philippe Gbamin · Metz · 90′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMousa Tamari · Rennes · 71′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedValentin Rongier · Rennes · 3′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Bokele Mputu · Metz · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedValentin Rongier · Rennes · 22′ · 0.04 xG · goalJessy Deminguet · Metz · 29′ · 0.04 xG · on targetIbou Sane · Metz · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBreel Embolo · Rennes · 15′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTerry Yegbe · Metz · 33′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedIbou Sane · Metz · 40′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJoel Asoro · Metz · 43′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedValentin Rongier · Rennes · 16′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedGauthier Hein · Metz · 30′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Rennes · 65′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJérémy Jacquet · Rennes · 27′ · 0.09 xG · on targetMalick Mbaye · Metz · 90′ · 0.10 xG · on targetJoel Asoro · Metz · 90′ · 0.12 xG · on targetEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 61′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedBreel Embolo · Rennes · 83′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedTerry Yegbe · Metz · 33′ · 0.40 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Metz: 16 shots, 5 on target, 1.04 xG. Rennes: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.87 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Valentin Rongier · Rennes · 22′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Metz 1.04 xG · Rennes 0.87 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Metz's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Rennes's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Metz's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Metz's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Rennes have a visible away split

moderate

Rennes's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.43 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.43 shots/match13.1 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Rennes show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Rennes's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9.21 shots/match▲ShotsMetz · Rennes13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMetzRennesBaseline
Shots9.21 shots/match13.1 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against14.9 shots/match14.4 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Metz favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Rennes in 8 · 5 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 14/14▲1.71 goals/match
2.21 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 14/14▲1.29 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.21 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/14▲13.1 shots/match
14.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 14/1414.4 shots/match
3.07 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/14▲4.71 shots/match
5.71 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 14/14▲3.86 shots/match
48.4%Possessionseason · 14/1450.8%
4.21 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/145.29 corners/match
5.36 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 14/14▲4.71 corners/match
1.71 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 14/142 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1411.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
21%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/14▲29%
57%Scoring frequencyseason · 14/14▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Metz52.8
Rennes63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Metz14.8
Rennes71.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Metz8.3
Rennes52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Metz2.8
Rennes69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Metz18.1
Rennes29.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Metz30.6
Rennes69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Metz16
Rennes59.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.4 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots5/512 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/55 shots/match
47.8%Possession5/546.4%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.9 goals/match
2.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.9 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.8 shots/match
48.9%Possession10/1052.3%
4.3 corners/matchCorners10/105.9 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲1.71 goals/match
2.21 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲1.29 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.21 shots/matchShots14/14▲13.1 shots/match
3.07 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲4.71 shots/match
48.4%Possession14/1450.8%
4.21 corners/matchCorners14/145.29 corners/match
1.71 cards/matchCards14/142 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
0.71 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.29 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.57 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9 shots/matchShots7/79.43 shots/match
2.86 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲3.57 shots/match
47.3%Possession7/752.4%
4.14 corners/matchCorners7/75.29 corners/match
1.43 cards/matchCards7/71.86 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls7/711.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.07 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 28 Nov 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMetzRennes
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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