PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 30 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeStade de la MeinauFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricStrasbourgStade Brestois 29
Shots14 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession57%43%
Corners5 corners/match0 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Emmanuel Emegha · Strasbourg · 89′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJoris Chotard · Stade Brestois 29 · 90′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoris Chotard · Stade Brestois 29 · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIsmael Doukouré · Strasbourg · 66′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois 29 · 82′ · 0.03 xG · goalIsmael Doukouré · Strasbourg · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 5′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 · 19′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBen Chilwell · Strasbourg · 39′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 70′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 30′ · 0.06 xG · on targetLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 · 64′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Amo-Ameyaw · Strasbourg · 11′ · 0.07 xG · goalMartial Godo · Strasbourg · 78′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAndrew Omobamidele · Strasbourg · 73′ · 0.08 xG · on targetJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 45′ · 0.09 xG · on targetJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 69′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedPathé Mboup · Stade Brestois 29 · 59′ · 0.11 xG · on targetIsmael Doukouré · Strasbourg · 69′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 · 55′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Strasbourg: 14 shots, 6 on target, 0.79 xG. Stade Brestois 29: 7 shots, 4 on target, 1.09 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Samuel Amo-Ameyaw · Strasbourg · 11′Romain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 · 55′Hugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois 29 · 82′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Strasbourg 0.79 xG · Stade Brestois 29 1.09 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Stade Brestois 29's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Stade Brestois 29's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Stade Brestois 29 have a visible away split

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.43 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.43 shots/match12.1 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Stade Brestois 29's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Stade Brestois 29's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.36 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.36 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Strasbourg favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Stade Brestois 29 in 1 · 5 too close

1.79 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 14/141.36 goals/match
1.36 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 14/141.71 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/1412.1 shots/match
10.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 14/1412.7 shots/match
4.64 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 14/143.86 shots/match
3.93 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 14/144.64 shots/match
50.7%Possessionseason · 14/1444.5%
3.36 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/144.36 corners/match
3.93 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 14/145.29 corners/match
2.43 cards/matchCardsseason · 14/14▲1.71 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1412.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
43%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/1421%
93%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1457%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Strasbourg58.3
Stade Brestois 2930.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Strasbourg58.3
Stade Brestois 2940.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Strasbourg63
Stade Brestois 2934.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Strasbourg19.4
Stade Brestois 2975
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Strasbourg57
Stade Brestois 2940.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Strasbourg8.3
Stade Brestois 2936.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Strasbourg36.8
Stade Brestois 2944.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510.4 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
53.4%Possession5/547.8%
3.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/513 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.4 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.3 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match
49.3%Possession10/1044.6%
2.8 corners/matchCorners10/104.3 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
1.79 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.36 goals/match
1.36 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots14/1412.1 shots/match
4.64 shots/match▲Shots on target14/143.86 shots/match
50.7%Possession14/1444.5%
3.36 corners/matchCorners14/144.36 corners/match
2.43 cards/matchCards14/141.71 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls14/1412.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.14 goals/match
0.57 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.86 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/match▲Shots7/78.43 shots/match
5.86 shots/match▲Shots on target7/72.71 shots/match
52.4%Possession7/744.4%
4 corners/matchCorners7/72.71 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards7/72.14 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls7/712.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.91 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 30 Nov 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsStrasbourgStade Brestois 29
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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