PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 12 Dec 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeStade Raymond-KopaFull-time recap

Angers

LWWLW
4–1Full-time recap

Nantes

LDDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAngersNantes
Shots20 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession54%46%
Corners6 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls17 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Amine Sbai · Angers · 39′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFabien Centonze · Nantes · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedYassin Belkhdim · Angers · 54′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLouis Mouton · Angers · 9′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHimad Abdelli · Angers · 71′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLouis Mouton · Angers · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHimad Abdelli · Angers · 85′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAmady Camara · Nantes · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAmine Sbai · Angers · 35′ · 0.03 xG · on targetHaris Belkebla · Angers · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDjibirin Harouna · Angers · 85′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYassin Belkhdim · Angers · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHimad Abdelli · Angers · 64′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYassin Belkhdim · Angers · 77′ · 0.04 xG · on targetYassine Benhattab · Nantes · 27′ · 0.05 xG · on targetYassin Belkhdim · Angers · 66′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSidiki Cherif · Angers · 63′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJunior Mwanga · Nantes · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetLilian Raolisoa · Angers · 90′ · 0.06 xG · goalFabien Centonze · Nantes · 81′ · 0.07 xG · goalMatthis Abline · Nantes · 74′ · 0.08 xG · on targetKelvin Amian · Nantes · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLouis Mouton · Angers · 53′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedYassin Belkhdim · Angers · 13′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedDjibirin Harouna · Angers · 85′ · 0.24 xG · goalSidiki Cherif · Angers · 60′ · 0.53 xG · goalHimad Abdelli · Angers · 17′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Angers: 20 shots, 9 on target, 2.44 xG. Nantes: 7 shots, 4 on target, 0.39 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Himad Abdelli · Angers · 17′Sidiki Cherif · Angers · 60′Djibirin Harouna · Angers · 85′Lilian Raolisoa · Angers · 90′Fabien Centonze · Nantes · 81′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Angers 2.44 xG · Nantes 0.39 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Angers's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Angers's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Angers's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Angers's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.06 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.06 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Angers have a visible home split

moderate

Angers's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

11 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season9.25 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11 shots/match9.25 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Angers favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Nantes in 1 · 5 too close

1.06 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/160.88 goals/match
1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/161.75 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.25 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/16▲9.75 shots/match
14.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 16/1616.6 shots/match
3.56 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/162.63 shots/match
5.31 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/165.5 shots/match
41.5%Possessionseason · 16/1642.4%
3.63 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/163.13 corners/match
5.69 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/166.63 corners/match
1.44 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 16/161.75 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1611.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
31%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1613%
69%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1656%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Angers8.3
Nantes13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Angers15.7
Nantes10.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Angers36.1
Nantes12
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Angers19.4
Nantes30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Angers20.8
Nantes26.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Angers19.4
Nantes2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Angers18.7
Nantes13.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/match▲Shots5/57.4 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.6 shots/match
48.8%Possession5/539.8%
2.6 corners/matchCorners5/51.6 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.6 shots/matchShots10/109.6 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.8 shots/match
44.4%Possession10/1041.7%
3.6 corners/matchCorners10/102.7 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches
1.06 goals/match▲Goals scored16/160.88 goals/match
1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.25 shots/matchShots16/16▲9.75 shots/match
3.56 shots/match▲Shots on target16/162.63 shots/match
41.5%Possession16/1642.4%
3.63 corners/matchCorners16/163.13 corners/match
1.44 cards/matchCards16/161.75 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.75 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.63 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/match▲Shots8/88.75 shots/match
4.63 shots/match▲Shots on target8/82.25 shots/match
44.1%Possession8/842%
4.63 corners/matchCorners8/83.13 corners/match
1.63 cards/matchCards8/82 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls8/811.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.24 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.16 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 12 Dec 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAngersNantes
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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